Lalu Prasad: To the Moon & back and striving again

A Young Lalu [Photo Courtesy: Outlook] 

New Delhi: Lalu Prasad. The name evokes response at once. The magical man, who more say failed Bihar, and failed the electors. He has had several role reversals, to the amazement and amusement of the people.

Lalu started as a student leader of Patna University. Joined the anti-Congress movement led by Late Jai Prakash Narayan. Was elected to the Parliament in the first opportunity and went on to become the chief minister of Bihar and ruled for 15 years directly and by proxy. All through the time Nitish Kumar was always by his side - as a friend, a party colleague and the one who always backed Lalu. Then came a time when Nitish and Lalu separated, became the worst of political rivals. Lalu lost his grip over Bihar, Nitish kept marching on.

Lalu Prasad with Sonia Gandhi

Lalu needed new friends. He joined hands with the Congress. This was when he compromised with what he practiced for several years when he was shaping up his political career. He traversed from being a staunch anti-Congress leader, to an ally partner & a minister in the government led by the grand old party; much of a role reversal for the man. Lalu is again trying hard to get back to the golden days when he ruled the state of Bihar.

A beaming Nitish Kumar

Lalu lost his sway, the pulse of Bihar long back in 2005, Nitish proved to be the winner. It’s been eight years. Most of the last eight years have been tough for Lalu, at least in Bihar. RJD was voted out of power in Bihar, Lalu has been out of the Union Cabinet for good time now, party fared badly in the elections and has been pushed to the number three party in Bihar as far as strength in the assembly is concerned. The JD (U)-BJP separation resulted in Rabri Devi losing her leader of Opposition tag too.

Lalu with Prabhunath Singh

But there have been silver linings for the man in the past few months as Nitish Kumar for the first time seems to be in some real problem. The popular CM of Bihar has faced several protests in the recent months, mostly by the contractual teachers, lost his old ally, the BJP and lost a very critical Lok Sabha seat in the by-polls to Lalu’s RJD; RJD's Prabhunath Singh won the Maharajganj by-polls by a huge margin.

Now the main story is where does Lalu and his party, the RJD, stand? Rashtriya Janata Dal is having an alliance with Ram Vilas Paswan’s decimated party the Lok Janshakti Party. Lalu is a vocal supporter of the Congress and the Gandhis. He is all set to go into the 2014 polls in alliance with the Congress. But is the Congress ready too? That’s the question.

People close to Rahul say he prefers an alliance with Nitish over Lalu. 

While Lalu is supporting the Congress, PM Manmohan Singh and Rahul Gandhi feel that Nitish Kumar is secular – an open invitation to Nitish from the top of the Congress party. Central government and Congress leaders have been praising Nitish, his demands are being met and seems that there could be a realignment in Bihar.  

Politics of Bihar has mostly been a direct fight in the last 15-years. First it was Lalu Vs the anti-Lalu forces and then Nitish Vs Lalu. Now the politics of Bihar is going the triangular way. The Nitish brigade, the saffron party and the ‘secular’ bandwagon; Congress and the left are still a very small factor in Bihar.

In the last elections Lalu’s alliance fared well if we talk about the vote percentage, though they failed to get good number of seats in the elections. Still, no one can reject Lalu in Bihar, he proved so in the Maharajganj by-polls.

Lalu has the backing of the Yadav’s, a good command over the Muslim votes and some other backward voters are with him. Though Paswan’s party fared badly in the last election, it has a following in the Dalit vote bank and a small section of the powerful Bhumihars have also backed them in the past. So the combination of Lalu and Paswan seem good. If the duo manages to woo the Congress to get into an alliance with them, they may get more of the Muslim votes, a handful of Brahmin votes and the staunch Congress voters in their kitty.

Lalu and Ram Vilas Paswan

But all this is not so easy. The break-up between the JD (U) and the BJP has both good and bad for Lalu. While a triangular contest will benefit RJD alliance in several constituencies, the break-up is also likely to hit Lalu’s vote bank. Nitish Kumar played the secular card and broke up in the name of Narendra Modi’s elevation; this message has gone down well with the Minority constituency. If Nitish manages to win them over, then the story can be different. Lalu needs to keep his flock intact and win over the voters who are disgruntled.

Lalu offers prayers during Chath Puja

Another problem with the RJD chief is his past which is set to haunt him. He was the one who coined slogans like – Bhura Baal Saaf Karo (Bhu-Bhumihar, Ra-Rajput, Baa-Brahmin and L-Lala or the Kayasthas). It is quite unlike that any of them will rally behind him, though they might vote for some candidates of his party on the basis of their castes. Lalu will have to fix this. A huge chunk of the forward vote is drifting away from Nitish after the Panchayat reservation issue, Lalu needs to win at least some of them, before it is all gone to the BJP.

The cloud of corruption and the lawlessness during the last days of the Lalu-Rabri regime are still afresh in the minds of the people of Bihar. He needs to clean the slate and assure the electors of a makeover of Bihar and the RJD, something like he did during his Railway Ministry days.

Lalu with Jyoti Basu

Ram Vilas Paswan has shown in the past that he can hop anywhere, from the NDA to the UPA to being with anyone where he can get power. This can also be a reason for worry for Lalu. Now that Nitish has broken off with the BJP and Congress is already giving feelers to Nitish, Paswan would be always ready to join them. This way the combination will be stronger than that of which Lalu, Paswan and Congress can make. Lalu will have to keep this in mind and keep ready an alternative arrangement, may be a front with smaller players- the Left parties.

Lalu, wife Rabri and brother in law Sadhu Yadav

The former CM of Bihar will also have to shed the image of a man who gives all the power to his family. Two CMs (Lalu and Rabri) and two de-facto CMs (Subhash and Sadhu) in the family factor dented his image very badly. He will have to assure not only to the people that he is not going to repeat it but also to the members of his party.

In any case, the former CM of Bihar has not much to lose. The strength of his party in the assembly and the Parliament is very small. He has nothing to lose. If he manages to keep his flock intact, use his secular card well, with a bit of support from the upper castes, he can come out with flying colors.

Lalu's sons: Tejasvi and Tej Pratap

But the Bihar Ka Doctor (Lalu has claimed in the past that he is a Doctor of Bihar politics and can read the pulse) needs to keep steps faster than Engineer Sahab – Nitish Kumar. Nitish has shown that he can engineer the best of the alliance, the most unlikely ones can be cobbled together and the state can be ruled.

Next: Nitish Kumar’s Engineering and mechanism….

Bed Partners turned foes: The Good, Bad and the Ugly

Nitish and Modi in happier times

New Delhi: Nitish Kumar and BJP were never natural alliance partners. It was an alliance of ‘need’. They both came together in the name of the anti-Lalu campaign in Bihar, to overthrow the so called misrule of the powerful Yadav leader of Bihar. They were successful in achieving their target.

But Nitish Kumar, who was a minister in the Atal Bihari cabinet, was never very comfortable with the basic nature or the building block of the alliance partner – Hindu nationalism. He was very much a secular leader, with a socialist background. He never was standing with them in support of the Ram Mandir or the Uniform Civil Code or their Hindu nationalism.

It was Kumar’s clever political moves, which are now being termed as selfishness, which made the alliance be intact for 17-long years before the “M-factor” wreaked havoc and the brothers in arms were seen having pitched battle on the roads of Patna.

The famous skull cap refusal...

There were two ‘Ms’ - the Minorities and Modi which were haunting Kumar for long. The two ‘Ms’ named go hand in hand. Nitish knew that if Modi is made the face of BJP, he will lose the second ‘M’ in Bihar, the minority votes. But still the alliance was running as he was able to get the large chunk of forward votes which were with the BJP. This way he was able to cobble up a winning chemistry. Kumri, Koeris, the EBC, the Mahadalits, a bit of Muslim support (Pasmanda Samaj) and a chunk of forwards made him dance around. The experiment proved successful in assembly as well as parliament elections. Even in alliance with BJP, Nitish was able to get good number of the Muslim votes for the candidates of his party, the Janta Dal (United). The victory of JD (U) in the district of Madhepura proved that the Engineer was even able to get a huge chunk of Yadav votes in the land of Mandal. Bihar CM is an engineering graduate.

So the question arises that when everything was going so smooth, and when the alliance seemed to be invincible at the moment, why did Nitish break-up? He was having everything he wanted; still he decided to call off the cozy relationship. Why?

Nitish at an Iftaar party

Ambition, aspiration and restructuring. Nitish has become synonymous to development (truth whatever might be), has been projected as Prime Minister by the media and many, quite like Modi. He also wants to have a shot at the national politics and wants to run without crutches – read the BJP. Modi also runs high on the development quotient, but 2002 always haunts him and his name sparks controversy and is set to polarize the voting pattern. And to add to Modi’s woes, his development has been questioned even by the stalwarts of the BJP, leave aside what the opposition says. Remember the words of LK Advani, "I always tell Narendra Modi that Gujarat was already prosperous, you have multiplied the development there’’. These are the words of the man who made BJP.  

While the wheel of time was moving, Nitish Kumar was silently working to strengthen his constituency, which was hurting the BJP. The BJP in Bihar has a huge chunk of forward votes, but Nitish was working to consolidate his EBC votes and the Muslim constituency. He came with the 20 per cent reservation for the extremely backward castes (EBCs) in panchayats. This came as a huge blow for the forwards specially the Bhumihars and the Rajputs. A powerful lobby in the BJP was seething in anger. But the fact remains that the Bihar CM gives very small room to other leaders, talk to anyone in a private room, you will come to know the fact. Nitish is not like other leaders, he always takes the decision he wants to; he is more like a bureaucrat, says a close aide of the Bihar CM – obviously in a personal chat.

With each passing day, while Nitish was busy with his own agenda, the national politics was hotting up with Narendra Damodardas Modi hogging the limelight. BJP leaders started a clamour for Modi to be named the PM candidate of the party for 2014, though it was not going well the alliance partner JD (U), Shiv Sena, probable alliance partners and even some leaders of the BJP were uncomfortable with the idea. They feared a polarization would hit them hard. But there was more to what meets the eye. Modi and his gang were working overtime to take the command of party. The anti-Modi lobby of BJP was caught off guard. Modi won the trust of the RSS. His men wanted him to be named as the PM candidate. A lobby within the BJP wanted to wait till elections are announced, allies were also against. But everyone knows, the RSS calls the shot as far as BJP is concerned. The veteran leader of the BJP, LK Advani was totally against the idea. Talks started to name Modi in Goa, where the party was to meet.

Nitish and his party-men were very vocal, against Modi. Nitish is also known to be close to LK Advani. They were keeping a close eye on the developments. Back channel talks started, a split seemed evident if Modi was named, even the chief of the BJPs campaign committee.

LK Advani skipped the Goa meet, it was said that he was unwell.

Lalu roars victory

On the other hand, there was a by-poll to Maharajganj Lok Sabha seat in Bihar. The JD (U) was pitted against RJD in the contest for the seat. Congress also pitched in the fight; many say to help the Janta Dal (United). Prabhu Nath Singh, a Rajput, was the RJD candidate, PK Shahi, a Bhumihar, was from the JD (U) and Jitendra Swami, a Rajput again, was given a ticket by the Congress. The RJD candidate smashed the JD (U) candidate, Prabhu Nath won by 1,37,000 votes. Nitish Kumar was shattered. It was said that the BJP worked overtime to make sure that the JD (U) loses. They wanted Nitish to feel how much he needed them when it comes to getting forward votes. They showed it to Nitish. But this only further strained the things. This was the third ‘M’ factor-Maharajganj. The results were declared on June 5, 2013. Lalu roared victory after a long time, that too in a forward bastion. Nitish knew it was the time to decide.

To add fuel to fire, BJP decided what came as the last nail in the coffin for the BJP-JD (U) alliance – elevate Modi as the poll chief. Nitish knew it was the right time to strike, said a decision would be taken. Sharad Yadav was not in favour of breaking up, he knew he would lose his national clout, he was the convenor of the NDA. LK Advani never wanted Nitish to go, he tried his best. But Advani himself was not in a position to offer Nitish something, the alliance moved for a divorce.

Came in the mudslinging, fist fights on the road. BJP called for a Bandh after separation, JD (U) men were beaten up during the bandh which was called Vishwasghaat Diwas. Things went from good, bad to ugly.

The usual soft spoken CM of Bihar also came out of his closet, and attacked the BJP straight. This was the harshest words of Nitish for the BJP one must have heard in a long time, if I open my mouth many BJP people will be in trouble, he said.

The new found Love?

So who benefits in such circumstances. It’s a very calculative risk which Nitish Kumar has taken. If he is won over by the overtures of Congress, what will he gain in Bihar? Congress has nothing in its own platter, what can it offer to him in the state? A special status to Bihar can work both for Nitish and Congress, will it be the next move of the new found lovers?

Or, will Lalu be the one to gain like it was for him in Maharajganj? Or will it be the BJP to smash the Nitish Kumar fort in Bihar?

Much to come….

NEXT: Where Lalu stands, permutations and combinations with Lalu in focus.