Bihar bomb politics ticks away: Modi to visit victims, BJP plans yatra 

October 30, 2013

Patna: The serial blasts in Patna on Sunday (27 October) killed six and injured scores in Gandhi Maidan, the venue of Narendra Modi’s rally. Even as the families of the victims rebuild their lives, politics over the blasts is in full swing. Bihar’s chief minister Nitish Kumar is caught on the backfoot: he had to face tough words from a colleague at his party’s conclave in Rajgir and now his bête noire Narendra Modi will visit Bihar again to meet the victims’ families.

Narendra Modi will reach Bihar on the night of 1 November, and meet the victim families on next day. The BJP is not missing any chances to take advantage of the attack: they are starting an asthikalash yatra with the ashes of the victims, which will culminate in Patna on 5 November. They have also sought an apology from the chief minister of Bihar. However, far from apology, Mr Kumar has been on a Modi-bashing spree for the last 24-hours.

Meanwhile Mr Kumar’s party colleague Shivanand Tiwari, who had embarrassed Mr Kumar at Rajgir by questioning the lack of security arrangements at Gandhi Maidan, is now trying to make amends with his party boss. He said he is against Mr Modi’s visit to Bihar to meet the victims’ families. He also criticized Mr Modi for his wrong historical allusions during his speech, saying, “I am surprised that Narendra Modi has such a poor understanding of general knowledge”.

- This story was first published in www.thepoliticalindian.com on October 30, 2013

Can the Modi duo win over Bihar’s backward castes?

October 26, 2013

Patna: Narendra Modi’s covert campaign in Bihar started way back when Nitish Kumar first said that he was against Mr Modi being named campaign chief of the Bharatiya Janata Party. A section of the Bihar BJP was convinced since last year that the BJP-Janata Dal (United) combine will fall apart. They took it seriously and started their campaign on the ground, building brand Modi in Bihar.

The campaign was all about adding the backward caste vote to the BJP’s upper caste base: word was spread that Narendra Modi was a rival backward caste leader and thus Mr Kumar was against him. Add to this the backward caste credentials of Sushil Modi, the Bihar BJP chief, and the party believes that between the two Modis they can wean away some of these castes who make up about 75 percent of Bihar’s voters.

In Bihar, the BJP is primarily seen as a party preferred by the elite – read upper castes – and the business class. This always limited the party in electoral battle. Its numbers soared only after the party allied with Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) and a good number of backward caste votes were transferred to them.

In the state, Narendra Modi is not being projected as a leader who stands for change, development but as a backward caste leader. Constituents are being told that with a backward caste leader so close to 7 Race Course Road, they must rally around him. Mr Modi knows that if the battle is fought only on development or change, Nitish Kumar will get a one up, at least when it comes to Bihar.

The Modi lobby has also won over Upendra Kushwaha, a powerful Koeri leader, who fell out with Nitish Kumar and floated his own party. He commands a good respect in the Koeri community, which is a key votebank of Nitish Kumar. Mr Kushwaha has backed the candidature of Narendra Modi as prime minister, and his Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) is all set to enter into an alliance with the BJP, which can pose a threat to Nitish Kumar sway over non-Yadav backward castes.

The BJP is also working on the Yadav votes, and some Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leaders have already crossed over to the BJP. But with Laloo Prasad Yadav now going to jail it will be interesting to see if there is a sympathy wave in his favor, or the rudderless party splinters, with the BJP reaping the rewards. The Yadavs have been power for long: in the two Modis they may well find backward caste leaders who are ready to their bidding.

BJP has a strong line of upper caste leaders in Bihar like Dr CP Thakur, Ashwini Chaubey, Shatrughan Sinha and Rajiv Pratap Rudy. The business community and the “aspiring middle class and youth” are also strong votaries of Mr Modi. With the right amount of backward caste votes, the BJP can emerge as the dominant player in Bihar.

But there are party spoilers: the JD (U) and RJD are not sitting idle either. While Mr Kumar is trying to cobble up a new alliance with the Congress apart from keeping his own constituency intact; the RJD is trying hard to win back the MY (Muslim-Yadav). Then there is Ram Vilas Paswan who can well be a wild card, particularly if his Lok Janshakti Party ties up with a potential Congress-JD(U) combine.

The battle for Bihar is only just warming up with Mr Modi’s Hunkaar rally in Patna.

- This story was first published in www.thepoliticalindian.com on October 26, 2013

Modi’s Patna rally: Bihar-Gujarat spar over bulletproof SUV, tax questions

October 25, 2013

Patna: Narendra Modi’s “Hunkaar rally” in Bihar’s capital (scheduled for 27 October) has set off a game of one-upmanship between the now estranged Bharatiya Janata Party and the ruling Janata Dal (United).


The Gujarat government had requested Bihar to provide a bullet proof SUV to Mr Modi during his Patna visit, but the Nitish Kumar government turned down the request. Now the Gujarat government has decided to move its own SUV from Delhi to Patna for the three hour visit of the BJP leader.

The government of Bihar has a total of 27-bullet proof vehicles, out of which only two are SUVs. Both these SUVs are a part of the chief ministers cavalcade and thus can’t be spared as Mr Kumar would also be traveling. Mr Kumar would be traveling to Rajgir for his party’s chintan shivir to be held on 28 and 29 October.

While senior Bihar police officials claim that they did not receive any written request from the Gujarat government, officials in Ahmedabad insist that they made the SUV request well in advance, during a telephone call between senior officials of the two states.

Meanwhile, the much hyped rally at Gandhi Maidan has also come under the scanner of Bihar’s Income Tax (IT) department. They have served a notice to the Bihar BJP, seeking details of the payments made to contractors for the rally. Under the scanner are expenses for the dais, the extravagant light & sound to be used, trains, buses, posters, banners, hoardings and other material being used to bring people in. The BJP has booked 11 special trains and nearly 5,000 buses to ferry workers and supporters to Patna for its rally.

- This story was first published in www.thepoliticalindian.com on October 25, 2013

Why a Congress-Nitish alliance still has hurdles

Patna: Never say never – an adage that holds true in politics, and more so in the heartland politics of India. Laloo Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar came into politics on an anti-Congress political plank. And yet, today they are vying with each other for a tie-up with the grand old party in Bihar.

Within the Congress there is still no clarity on a future course of action. Sources inform PI that while Sonia Gandhi still favors going with Mr Yadav, Rahul Gandhi favors a go-it-alone policy, and only in the worst case scenario, a tie-up with Mr Kumar. Mr Gandhi wants to build the party in the state, but pressure from some top Congress leaders might force him to make up his mind in favor of an alliance with the Janata Dal (United). What might precipitate the alliance is a poor showing by the Congress party in the November state elections and the inevitable momentum Narendra Modi would get from a positive result for the BJP.

But, apart from Rahul Gandhi’s diffidence, there is another catch to the Congress tie-up with Mr Kumar: experts suggest that Muslim votes will consolidate better if the Congress allied with Mr Yadav’s RJD, rather than with Mr Kumar. In the last Bihar state elections, Congress managed to get 8.38 percent of votes. But with the state’s 17 percent Muslims expected to consolidate behind the Congress party, it can play a decisive role. Nitish Kumar has done his best to woo Muslims by snapping his ties with BJP, but his long association with the National Democratic Alliance and Lal Krishna Advani still counts against him.

To add to his woes, the BJP is circulating CDs of Nitish Kumar praising Narendra Modi; these CDs were recently sent to all media houses by Mr Modi’s acolytes and got significant airtime. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) also plans to hit Mr Kumar where it hurts: they are planning to highlight his earlier proximity with the BJP.

In all Nitish is at the receiving end in Bihar at the moment: a tie-up with Congress is his best option, and it may just deliver Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) as a bonus. This would make a formidable coalition of Dalits, Muslims and non-Yadav backward castes, who constitute roughly three-quarters of the population.

Apart from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Rahul Gandhi who have both termed Mr Kumar “secular”, other Congress leaders have also been praising the Bihar chief minister; his demands, like special status for his state, are also being met, much to the discomfort of the old ally Laloo Prasad Yadav. But the Congress-Nitish Kumar alliance still has a few hurdles to cross.

- - This story was first published in www.thepoliticalindian.com on October 21, 2013

Will Modi pick BJP’s Delhi CM candidate and risk a revolt?

Delhi: Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) name someone as the chief ministerial candidate in the run up to the Delhi assembly elections? Or will it go without naming anyone to avoid any kind of revolt in the party? If we go by the developments in Lutyen’s Delhi last week, the decision will be a tough one for the party, with the capital’s state unit divided between Vijay Goel and Harsh Vardhan’s camps, and the Aam Admi party making steady inroads in the anti-Congress vote.

Now the task is in the hands of the party’s “magician” Narendra Modi. On 20 October, Mr Modi will be in Delhi to attend the central election committee meeting to finalize the candidates for Chhattisgarh. However sources within the BJP said that a meeting of the parliamentary board is also likely to be held, mainly to discuss the Delhi situation.

Mr Goel’s camp suggested that the party might go into the elections without announcing a name for the top job. But this is unacceptable to the upbeat Modi camp. “We don’t want to take any chances before the general elections,” a senior BJP leader told PI. “If we lose Delhi, it would be termed as a Modi failure. By naming a chief ministerial candidate, we can protect the image of our prime ministerial candidate.”

The infighting in Delhi BJP has now spilled into the open. First, the name of Harsh Vardhan was leaked to the media by the camp of a very senior BJP leader as their choice for the Delhi chief minister. The same day, when Dr Harshvardhan’s name was being flashed all over the TV channels, Vijay Goel pitched his name as the party’s candidate for the Delhi CM in a press conference. The party was embarrassed and it came out with a press release saying, “The party has not decided on anyone as the chief ministerial candidate and only the parliamentary board will decide on the candidate.”

The Goel Vs Vardhan debate

Both Vijay Goel and Harsh Vardhan have long political careers behind them in Delhi. But what matters in politics is perception and lobbying, and that will ultimately seal their fate.

Mr Vardhan’s name did not figure anywhere if we turn the pages just a month back, and Mr Goel seemed a shoo-in for the nomination. Even the posters of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) compared their candidate Arvind Kejriwal to Mr Goel and the current chief minister Sheila Dixit. However, the last few days have changed the dynamics dramatically, with even opponents of Mr Vardhan admitting privately that he now has an edge over Mr Goel.

“There is a basic difference between the two,” said a senior BJP leader, “Harsh Vardhan keeps a low profile, is known for his clean image, commands respect in the Delhi circuit. Not that Goel sahab is not fit to be the CM, but his image is different on the scales that are now being used in the Delhi elections.” Added another leader, “It’s Harshavardhan or no one for us.”

What also gives Mr Vardhan the edge is the strong backing of the Rashtriya Swayam Sevak Sangh, which is likely to turn the tables in his favor. The Delhi BJP in-charge Nitin Gadkari and Mr Modi cannot say “no” to the RSS choice.

So this leaves the BJP in a big dilemma: they cannot go without a name as it may hit their man in the race to 7 Race Course Road. They will have to name someone to insulate Mr Modi from a BJP loss in Delhi. If they name Mr Goel, undecided voters are likely to drift towards Arvind Kejriwal. If they name Harsh Vardhan they may win back some voters due to his clean image, but will also risk a revolt by Vijay Goel who has a loyal band of supporters in the Delhi BJP.

Whatever decision the BJP and Mr Modi take, some feathers will be ruffled.

- This story was first published in www.thepoliticalindian.com on October 19, 2013