Son Chirag stars in Paswan alliance drama

February 26, 2014

New Delhi/Patna: If “secular alliances” is one roadblock in Narendra Modi’s path to prime minister, then Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) is showing up the cracks that already exist in this alliance. Mr Paswan has talked about a potential seat-sharing with the BJP in Bihar: leaving people to wonder if he has called time on the secular alliance or just playing hardball with them.

But behind the latest maneuver of the Dalit leader from Hajipur are three old-school political factors: a CBI case, caste equations and most importantly, an ambitious family led by his actor son Chirag Paswan.

A CBI probe into Bokaro Steel Plant recruitment scam is getting uncomfortably close, with Mr Paswan slated to be questioned soon. His power has been greatly diminished by Nitish Kumar’s caste outreach: the Bihar chief minister put 21 out of the 22 dalit castes in the Mahadalit Commission, leaving out only the Paswans. This has put the political career of Chirag Paswan at stake, as the LJP is squeezed for seats by potential allies. Last time the LJP had not managed to win a single Lok Sabha seat, losing all four they had won in 2004. Ram Vilas Paswan lost from Hajipur, which he had once won with record margins.

The LJP-Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal alliance stumbled over two Lok Sabha seats: Jamui and Samastipur. Ramvilas Paswan wants to field his son from Jamui, while he wants Samastipur for his brother Ramchandra. The Bihar Congress has objections: they want those seats for their senior leaders Ashok Choudhury and Ashok Ram. And this is why Chirag Paswan took the lead and came out in support of Narendra Modi.

Chirag, the only son of Ramvilas Paswan, was an aspiring Bollywood actor: he joined politics after his debut film Mile Na Miley Ham failed to click. He started meeting senior party leaders, made an impression on them by running the social media wing, and was selected the party’s parliamentary board chief last year. Pushing for Narendra Modi within the party is his first big political stand.

Some upper caste leaders within the LJP are also backing the young Mr Paswan’s stand, hoping to see some transfer of the BJP’s popularity among the upper castes. But what could emerge, as a tricky subject is the Paswan family’s insistence that their party would fight at least 7-8 seats. Chirag Paswan has had meetings with some top BJP leaders and sources close to the young Paswan say that a deal is almost sealed. On record, Chirag Paswan calls this mere speculation and the parliamentary board, which he heads, will take the decision.

With his son taking the lead on rapprochement with Mr Modi, Ram Vilas Paswan also gets some breathing space: he was after all the first minister to resign from the NDA government over the 2002 Gujarat riots. His U-turn will seem less farcical with his son taking the decision. In pure caste math, the Paswan’s calculate that the transfer of BJP’s upper caste base can make up for the minority votes they will lose by aligning with Mr Modi’s party.

BJP’s Delhi leaders are upbeat about the alliance, which they say only require a stamp of approval from prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, which could happen in the next couple of days. They calculate that Mr Paswan’s Dalit votes would help them get over their Muslim weakness.

But the Bihar BJP is not in a very welcoming mood: many in the state leadership think Mr Paswan a losing deal for the party. One Bihar BJP leader Ashwini Chaubey said that the alliance with LJP would be suicidal and called Mr Paswan an opportunist politician. There is fear that the party rank and file will be demoralized if seats are given away to allies.

The Paswans are not merely eyeing the Lok Sabha elections, but also the assembly elections slated for next year. If they go with the RJD-Congress or with the Janata Dal (United), the chief minister’s post is not vacant. But with BJP Mr Paswan hopes to make a deal, whereby he gets a shot at chief ministership in alliance with the BJP, and in return he may concede an extra Lok Sabha seats for Mr Modi’s prime ministerial campaign.

Mr Paswan has mostly sided with the winner, with ideological differences playing second fiddle to political expediency. His latest move could be seen in that light, as a continuance of political opportunism; or it can be seen as a first signs of generational change within the party, son Chirag’s first strategic move.

- This story was first published in www.thepoliticalindian.com on February 26, 2014

The backstory on AAP’s high stake strategy

February 14, 2014

New Delhi: It was just a matter of time: Arvind Kejriwal had made up his mind to resign as Delhi chief minister of Delhi a week ago. There could have been no better issue to resign than the flagship anti-corruption Janlokpal Bill. There could not have been a better way to establish the equivalence between Congress and BJP, a key strategy of his party that paid dividends in the Delhi elections.

This decision was not impetuous: it was carefully thought out, and it seems Mr Kejriwal has been able to maneuver events to suit his party perfectly.

With the Delhi government in minority and unable to push through much of its agenda, it was becoming more of a liability than an asset for the Aam Admi Party. The implementation of cheap electricity and free water had hurdles; there was an open conflict with the Delhi Police and the central government on several issues; there was rebellion within the party and unprecedented media scrutiny of his government.

Eye on Lok Sabha

The scripting of the resignation also gives Mr Kejriwal an anti-corruption martyr’s halo, as the party prepares for the Lok Sabha elections. He will now hard-sell the emotive Janlokpal Bill. He will also target Mukesh Ambani’s “funding” of both BJP and Congress: with the two big parties opaque about their funding, it is an accusation that could stick. His speeches in the assembly and after his resignation both linked the BJP and Congress’ non-cooperation on Janlokpal to the FIRs that were filed against Mr Ambani.

If they continued in government, Mr Kejriwal would not have been able to campaign extensively in the country and AAP’s performance was set to take a hit, barring the seven seats of Delhi. AAP’s strategists believe that they can garner strong support in around 125-150 seats in the general elections, but only if there is a focused campaign with Arvind Kejriwal at the forefront. The party plans to fight an ambitious 350 seats.

Earlier this week, the announcement of the first list of Lok Sabha candidates by AAP was postponed as Mr Kejriwal prepared to take a call on his resignation. The party knows that it needs to work on several problem areas, particularly finding strong local candidates in the Hindi heartland.

Both in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, which send 120 Members to Parliament together, the Aam Admi Party has very few credible faces. Opinion polls show Narendra Modi making strong inroads in these states: this is where Arvind Kejriwal can have maximum impact, and is most needed. The AAP top brass sees the Congress as a spent force: the main target from now on will be the BJP, who will be equated with the discredited Congress.

The dilemma of the big parties

The Congress fared poorly in the Delhi assembly elections and is staring at an unprecedented drubbing in the Lok Sabha elections. They were hoping for Mr Kejriwal to fail as chief minister: but they also wanted to keep him in office till the Lok Sabha elections, distracted and unable to campaign with full force.

Many BJP leaders also wanted Mr Kejriwal to remain in government till the Lok Sabha polls as they fear that his campaign will hit the party in urban pockets. But others wanted a re-election in Delhi along with the Lok Sabha, hoping to cash in on the Modi effect.

Even before he took office, Mr Kejriwal knew that his minority government was not going to last the full term: the plan was to fulfill some big promises on electricity, water and corruption quickly, and then resign at the right time. Getting the moment right was important, as was the motive: at least from the enthusiasm of his supporters it looks like he has got the moment and motive right, leaving the two big parties flat footed.

- This story was first published in www.thepoliticalindian.com on February 14, 2014

Dissent, fear grip Nitish Kumar’s party in Bihar

January 31, 2014

Patna: It has been a difficult winter for Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar: and he is now getting the cold vibes from his own partymen and long time associates. Two of his Rajya Sabha MPs, Shivanand Tiwari and NK Singh have refused Mr Kumar’s offer to contest Lok Sabha polls this time, in a clear indication that they fear a poor showing by the ruling Janata Dal (United).

Mr Tiwari has been blunt: “Nitish Kumar wants me to lose the elections, that is why he is giving me a Lok Sabha ticket.” Mr Tiwari had earlier fallen out publicly with Nitish Kumar over the latter’s decision to pull out of the NDA. “How can I contest for a man who hates me?”

More surprising perhaps is the exclusion of former bureaucrat NK Singh from the Rajya Sabha list. The urbane face of the JD(U), Mr Singh was a bridge between Mr Kumar and the central government, several industrialists and the Delhi media. Party insiders said that not being able to secure special economic status for Bihar was the reason for Mr Singh’s exclusion.

NK Singh was working behind the scenes with Planning Commission Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia, to secure the special status, a major demand of Nitish Kumar. Mr Singh is also the brother of BJP MP from Purnea Mr Uday Singh, who is a bitter critic of Nitish Kumar.

“This offer (to contest the Lok Sabha) was indeed surprising, albeit a cavalier one, since I had undertaken no preparatory work in the constituency,” Mr Singh wrote to the Bihar chief minister. “Foisting any individual without prior consultation with the constituents may be grossly unfair to them.”

The third Rajya Sabha MP Sabir Ali too has been replaced and offered a Lok Sabha ticket. The JD(U)’s new Rajya Sabha nominees are Ramnath Thakur (son of well-known socialist Karpoori Thakur), Harivansh (editor of Prabhat Khabar, a leading local paper) and Kahkasha Praveen. Mr Ali is also said to be upset with the party boss.

JD(U)’s sinking fortunes

And its not just these leaders who have been denied tickets who are blaming Mr Kumar. There is now a larger dissent among the party’s rank and file over what they believe was their chief’s political miscalculation: pulling out of the NDA over Narendra Modi’s elevation to BJP’s leadership. Recent opinion poll results and the alliance math is clearly showing that Mr Kumar’s decision has backfired.

The India Today–C Voter survey predicted the JD (U) would get 4 seats (down from the current 19) in the coming elections, with the BJP getting 22 seats, and Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal getting 11 seats. Another survey conducted by CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS gave Nitish Kumar’s party between 7 and 13 seats.

While Mr Kumar had earlier hoped to seal an alliance with the Congress and Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janashakti Party, these two now seem to be on the verge of sealing an alliance with Lalu Prasad Yadav. This “secular alliance”, if it happens, will further hurt the prospects of the JD(U), by consolidating the Muslim votes which Mr Kumar was banking on when he quit the NDA.

Nitish Kumar, who has run the show in Bihar for the last 8 years, and was even being touted as a potential prime ministerial candidate a few months back, now faces the most challenging time of his political career. He has burnt bridges with his old allies, and has not been able to connect to new ones. And now he faces open dissent within his own party.

- This story was first published in www.thepoliticalindian.com on January 31, 2014

Inside AAP’s strategy against Modi and Rahul

January 19, 2014

New Delhi: The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has set its eyes on the upcoming general elections after a stunning debut in Delhi, and their war room is abuzz with anticipation for the 2014 polls. AAP strategists are busy scaling up their successful Delhi model: they are targeting the two rival prime ministerial candidates (Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi) in their home ground, reminiscent of Arvind Kejriwal’s insurgent attack on Sheila Dixit which flattened the Congress in Delhi.

Merely anti-Modi will not work in Gujarat

“We know that it is going to be a dismal show by the Congress, but we don’t want to be labeled as only anti- Modi,” said a key AAP strategist.  “We will need to go after both parties, like we did in Delhi.”

There are two streams of thought inside AAP on candidate selection in Gujarat for the Lok Sabha polls. While one section wants the party to select big name candidates, the other wants to nominate real aam admi candidates. Some well-known baiters of Mr Modi – activists and former police officers – are seeking AAP tickets, trying to jump on their popularity wave. But AAP is treading a cautious path: the young party does not want any labels on its candidates when they go in for the big fight.

“If all those known to have fallen out with Modi are nominated as party candidates, we will be labeled as a party which nurtures only anti-Modi sentiments,” said the AAP strategist. “We need to strike a balance, to be clear in our thoughts. Giving tickets to those who have been running anti-Modi campaign will not do any good to us.”

The party has clearly learnt its lessons from the Congress’ repeated failures to sell the anti-Modi message to the Gujarat electorate. Making Mr Modi the focal point of the campaign only strengthened the Gujarat chief minister’s image with Guajaratis.

“Rather than focusing on Modi we should focus on our anti-corruption plank, not just in Gujarat, but nationally,” said another senior AAP member. “That will work better for us.”

Breaching the Gandhi bastion

Though the party is yet to officially announce Lok Sabha candidatures, Kumar Vishwas is all set to take on Rahul Gandhi from Amethi. Mr Vishwas is now gearing up to address the “Jan Vishwas Rally” in Amethi’s Ramlila grounds on 12 January.

According to AAP sources, 6,000 people have already joined the party in Amethi, and 100 volunteers are manning 10 offices in the constituency. Mr Vishwas has also challenged top BJP leaders like Mr Modi, Arun Jaitley and Nitin Gadkari to contest from Amethi.

“Why do they only slam the shehzada from stage?” asked the poet-turned politician. “They must come down to Amethi to join the battle. Are they afraid of fighting against Rahul or me? Lip service will not do, they must show some substance.”

According to Mr Vishwas, the campaign against Rahul Gandhi will be a direct attack on his poor performance as Amethi’s public representative: the constituency has not seen much development, he never asked any questions related to Amethi in the House, and he rarely even attended the parliament.
When asked what will be the party strategy in Uttar Pradesh, Mr Vishwas said the state faces maximum corruption in the country, perpetuated by both the national and regional parties, and therefore people will see AAP as a breath of fresh air.

The PM question

As it stands now the AAP will not officially announce Arvind Kejriwal as the prime ministerial candidate of the party for 2014. Mr Kejriwal has already announced that he will not fight the Lok Sabha elections, but will campaign nationwide.

AAP is betting on repeating its successful Delhi gameplan: they did not announce a chief ministerial candidate, but merely compared Arvind Kejriwal with Shiela and Vijay Goel & later Harshvardhan. Mr Kejriwal will continue to be the focus of the campaign, and by default the leader for whom AAP will ask for votes.

Among AAP’s recent high profile recruits, former banker Meera Sanyal is set to take on Milind Deora from South Mumbai (she lost to Mr Deora in 2009 as an independent). Air Deccan founder Captain Gopinath is likely to be fielded against Nandan Nilekani in Bangalore, while singer Remo Fernandez may fight from Goa.


- This story was first published in www.thepoliticalindian.com on January 19, 2014

Protests at presser, cracks in Delhi BJP over tickets

November 9, 2013

New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces an uphill task trying to keep its flock united over ticket distribution in the Delhi elections. Though the party managed to put up a united face after Harsh Vardhan was declared the chief ministerial candidate over Vijay Goel, several leaders are now rebelling.

A press conference hosted by Mr Vardhan and Mr Goel took an ugly turn as many protesting BJP workers barged into the room. While Mr Goel had to escape the protests, Mr Vardhan continued to put up a brave face, till he was heckled by the protestors. Protests have also taken place at the party office and residences of senior party leaders like Rajnath Singh and Nitin Gadkari.

Meanwhile, several BJP leaders are now quitting the party after being denied tickets. Four-time BJP MLA Harsharan Singh Balli was denied ticket from the Harinagar assembly constituency; Mr Balli was quick to announce that he would fight as an independent candidate from the same constituency. Mr Balli has a strong support base in the constituency and can hurt the BJP’s chances; now Vijay Goel has been drafted to speak to the potential rebel.

In another jolt to the Delhi BJP, former mayor of the south Delhi municipal corporation Savita Gupta decided to resign from the party and joined challenger Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). She had been denied a ticket from the Kasturba Nagar seat.

Senior party leader Azad Singh resigned from the party as soon the tickets were announced: he wanted to contest the elections from the Mundka seat, but was denied a ticket. Similarly, a councilor Dharambir, who wanted a party ticket from the Kalkaji assembly seat, resigned from the party.
Party MP Kirti Azad was so peeved at his wife Poonam Azad not getting a ticket that he came on record and said that the party has overlooked the interests of the poorvanchalis (people from eastern Uttar Pradesh). The BJP has been trying hard to win over the poorvanchalis and roped in famous Bhojpuri singer Manoj Tiwari to win over votes.

In further embarrassment, on Friday late evening, a party leader from Mustafabad assembly seat, Jagdish Pradhan declared himself as the party candidate during a party meeting without the consent of the party.

After a 15-year dry spell, the BJP knows that it’s chances of forming a government in Delhi are brighter this time. But that has also resulted in increased competition for tickets.

Party heavyweights too have been pushing their own candidates. While Arun Jaitley managed a ticket for his close aide OP Sharma, who lost badly in the preceding elections; Sushma Swaraj’s candidate Shikha Rai also managed a nomination. Tickets to the sons party leaders Rajiv Babbar and Vijay Kumar Malhotra have also ruffled many feathers.

“It’s a long way ahead, we will overcome,” said a party leader, trying to sound optimistic. “If the leadership is united such fissures will also be managed.”

- This story was first published in www.thepoliticalindian.com on November 9, 2013