Bed Partners turned foes: The Good, Bad and the Ugly

Nitish and Modi in happier times

New Delhi: Nitish Kumar and BJP were never natural alliance partners. It was an alliance of ‘need’. They both came together in the name of the anti-Lalu campaign in Bihar, to overthrow the so called misrule of the powerful Yadav leader of Bihar. They were successful in achieving their target.

But Nitish Kumar, who was a minister in the Atal Bihari cabinet, was never very comfortable with the basic nature or the building block of the alliance partner – Hindu nationalism. He was very much a secular leader, with a socialist background. He never was standing with them in support of the Ram Mandir or the Uniform Civil Code or their Hindu nationalism.

It was Kumar’s clever political moves, which are now being termed as selfishness, which made the alliance be intact for 17-long years before the “M-factor” wreaked havoc and the brothers in arms were seen having pitched battle on the roads of Patna.

The famous skull cap refusal...

There were two ‘Ms’ - the Minorities and Modi which were haunting Kumar for long. The two ‘Ms’ named go hand in hand. Nitish knew that if Modi is made the face of BJP, he will lose the second ‘M’ in Bihar, the minority votes. But still the alliance was running as he was able to get the large chunk of forward votes which were with the BJP. This way he was able to cobble up a winning chemistry. Kumri, Koeris, the EBC, the Mahadalits, a bit of Muslim support (Pasmanda Samaj) and a chunk of forwards made him dance around. The experiment proved successful in assembly as well as parliament elections. Even in alliance with BJP, Nitish was able to get good number of the Muslim votes for the candidates of his party, the Janta Dal (United). The victory of JD (U) in the district of Madhepura proved that the Engineer was even able to get a huge chunk of Yadav votes in the land of Mandal. Bihar CM is an engineering graduate.

So the question arises that when everything was going so smooth, and when the alliance seemed to be invincible at the moment, why did Nitish break-up? He was having everything he wanted; still he decided to call off the cozy relationship. Why?

Nitish at an Iftaar party

Ambition, aspiration and restructuring. Nitish has become synonymous to development (truth whatever might be), has been projected as Prime Minister by the media and many, quite like Modi. He also wants to have a shot at the national politics and wants to run without crutches – read the BJP. Modi also runs high on the development quotient, but 2002 always haunts him and his name sparks controversy and is set to polarize the voting pattern. And to add to Modi’s woes, his development has been questioned even by the stalwarts of the BJP, leave aside what the opposition says. Remember the words of LK Advani, "I always tell Narendra Modi that Gujarat was already prosperous, you have multiplied the development there’’. These are the words of the man who made BJP.  

While the wheel of time was moving, Nitish Kumar was silently working to strengthen his constituency, which was hurting the BJP. The BJP in Bihar has a huge chunk of forward votes, but Nitish was working to consolidate his EBC votes and the Muslim constituency. He came with the 20 per cent reservation for the extremely backward castes (EBCs) in panchayats. This came as a huge blow for the forwards specially the Bhumihars and the Rajputs. A powerful lobby in the BJP was seething in anger. But the fact remains that the Bihar CM gives very small room to other leaders, talk to anyone in a private room, you will come to know the fact. Nitish is not like other leaders, he always takes the decision he wants to; he is more like a bureaucrat, says a close aide of the Bihar CM – obviously in a personal chat.

With each passing day, while Nitish was busy with his own agenda, the national politics was hotting up with Narendra Damodardas Modi hogging the limelight. BJP leaders started a clamour for Modi to be named the PM candidate of the party for 2014, though it was not going well the alliance partner JD (U), Shiv Sena, probable alliance partners and even some leaders of the BJP were uncomfortable with the idea. They feared a polarization would hit them hard. But there was more to what meets the eye. Modi and his gang were working overtime to take the command of party. The anti-Modi lobby of BJP was caught off guard. Modi won the trust of the RSS. His men wanted him to be named as the PM candidate. A lobby within the BJP wanted to wait till elections are announced, allies were also against. But everyone knows, the RSS calls the shot as far as BJP is concerned. The veteran leader of the BJP, LK Advani was totally against the idea. Talks started to name Modi in Goa, where the party was to meet.

Nitish and his party-men were very vocal, against Modi. Nitish is also known to be close to LK Advani. They were keeping a close eye on the developments. Back channel talks started, a split seemed evident if Modi was named, even the chief of the BJPs campaign committee.

LK Advani skipped the Goa meet, it was said that he was unwell.

Lalu roars victory

On the other hand, there was a by-poll to Maharajganj Lok Sabha seat in Bihar. The JD (U) was pitted against RJD in the contest for the seat. Congress also pitched in the fight; many say to help the Janta Dal (United). Prabhu Nath Singh, a Rajput, was the RJD candidate, PK Shahi, a Bhumihar, was from the JD (U) and Jitendra Swami, a Rajput again, was given a ticket by the Congress. The RJD candidate smashed the JD (U) candidate, Prabhu Nath won by 1,37,000 votes. Nitish Kumar was shattered. It was said that the BJP worked overtime to make sure that the JD (U) loses. They wanted Nitish to feel how much he needed them when it comes to getting forward votes. They showed it to Nitish. But this only further strained the things. This was the third ‘M’ factor-Maharajganj. The results were declared on June 5, 2013. Lalu roared victory after a long time, that too in a forward bastion. Nitish knew it was the time to decide.

To add fuel to fire, BJP decided what came as the last nail in the coffin for the BJP-JD (U) alliance – elevate Modi as the poll chief. Nitish knew it was the right time to strike, said a decision would be taken. Sharad Yadav was not in favour of breaking up, he knew he would lose his national clout, he was the convenor of the NDA. LK Advani never wanted Nitish to go, he tried his best. But Advani himself was not in a position to offer Nitish something, the alliance moved for a divorce.

Came in the mudslinging, fist fights on the road. BJP called for a Bandh after separation, JD (U) men were beaten up during the bandh which was called Vishwasghaat Diwas. Things went from good, bad to ugly.

The usual soft spoken CM of Bihar also came out of his closet, and attacked the BJP straight. This was the harshest words of Nitish for the BJP one must have heard in a long time, if I open my mouth many BJP people will be in trouble, he said.

The new found Love?

So who benefits in such circumstances. It’s a very calculative risk which Nitish Kumar has taken. If he is won over by the overtures of Congress, what will he gain in Bihar? Congress has nothing in its own platter, what can it offer to him in the state? A special status to Bihar can work both for Nitish and Congress, will it be the next move of the new found lovers?

Or, will Lalu be the one to gain like it was for him in Maharajganj? Or will it be the BJP to smash the Nitish Kumar fort in Bihar?

Much to come….

NEXT: Where Lalu stands, permutations and combinations with Lalu in focus.