Lalu Prasad: To the Moon & back and striving again

A Young Lalu [Photo Courtesy: Outlook] 

New Delhi: Lalu Prasad. The name evokes response at once. The magical man, who more say failed Bihar, and failed the electors. He has had several role reversals, to the amazement and amusement of the people.

Lalu started as a student leader of Patna University. Joined the anti-Congress movement led by Late Jai Prakash Narayan. Was elected to the Parliament in the first opportunity and went on to become the chief minister of Bihar and ruled for 15 years directly and by proxy. All through the time Nitish Kumar was always by his side - as a friend, a party colleague and the one who always backed Lalu. Then came a time when Nitish and Lalu separated, became the worst of political rivals. Lalu lost his grip over Bihar, Nitish kept marching on.

Lalu Prasad with Sonia Gandhi

Lalu needed new friends. He joined hands with the Congress. This was when he compromised with what he practiced for several years when he was shaping up his political career. He traversed from being a staunch anti-Congress leader, to an ally partner & a minister in the government led by the grand old party; much of a role reversal for the man. Lalu is again trying hard to get back to the golden days when he ruled the state of Bihar.

A beaming Nitish Kumar

Lalu lost his sway, the pulse of Bihar long back in 2005, Nitish proved to be the winner. It’s been eight years. Most of the last eight years have been tough for Lalu, at least in Bihar. RJD was voted out of power in Bihar, Lalu has been out of the Union Cabinet for good time now, party fared badly in the elections and has been pushed to the number three party in Bihar as far as strength in the assembly is concerned. The JD (U)-BJP separation resulted in Rabri Devi losing her leader of Opposition tag too.

Lalu with Prabhunath Singh

But there have been silver linings for the man in the past few months as Nitish Kumar for the first time seems to be in some real problem. The popular CM of Bihar has faced several protests in the recent months, mostly by the contractual teachers, lost his old ally, the BJP and lost a very critical Lok Sabha seat in the by-polls to Lalu’s RJD; RJD's Prabhunath Singh won the Maharajganj by-polls by a huge margin.

Now the main story is where does Lalu and his party, the RJD, stand? Rashtriya Janata Dal is having an alliance with Ram Vilas Paswan’s decimated party the Lok Janshakti Party. Lalu is a vocal supporter of the Congress and the Gandhis. He is all set to go into the 2014 polls in alliance with the Congress. But is the Congress ready too? That’s the question.

People close to Rahul say he prefers an alliance with Nitish over Lalu. 

While Lalu is supporting the Congress, PM Manmohan Singh and Rahul Gandhi feel that Nitish Kumar is secular – an open invitation to Nitish from the top of the Congress party. Central government and Congress leaders have been praising Nitish, his demands are being met and seems that there could be a realignment in Bihar.  

Politics of Bihar has mostly been a direct fight in the last 15-years. First it was Lalu Vs the anti-Lalu forces and then Nitish Vs Lalu. Now the politics of Bihar is going the triangular way. The Nitish brigade, the saffron party and the ‘secular’ bandwagon; Congress and the left are still a very small factor in Bihar.

In the last elections Lalu’s alliance fared well if we talk about the vote percentage, though they failed to get good number of seats in the elections. Still, no one can reject Lalu in Bihar, he proved so in the Maharajganj by-polls.

Lalu has the backing of the Yadav’s, a good command over the Muslim votes and some other backward voters are with him. Though Paswan’s party fared badly in the last election, it has a following in the Dalit vote bank and a small section of the powerful Bhumihars have also backed them in the past. So the combination of Lalu and Paswan seem good. If the duo manages to woo the Congress to get into an alliance with them, they may get more of the Muslim votes, a handful of Brahmin votes and the staunch Congress voters in their kitty.

Lalu and Ram Vilas Paswan

But all this is not so easy. The break-up between the JD (U) and the BJP has both good and bad for Lalu. While a triangular contest will benefit RJD alliance in several constituencies, the break-up is also likely to hit Lalu’s vote bank. Nitish Kumar played the secular card and broke up in the name of Narendra Modi’s elevation; this message has gone down well with the Minority constituency. If Nitish manages to win them over, then the story can be different. Lalu needs to keep his flock intact and win over the voters who are disgruntled.

Lalu offers prayers during Chath Puja

Another problem with the RJD chief is his past which is set to haunt him. He was the one who coined slogans like – Bhura Baal Saaf Karo (Bhu-Bhumihar, Ra-Rajput, Baa-Brahmin and L-Lala or the Kayasthas). It is quite unlike that any of them will rally behind him, though they might vote for some candidates of his party on the basis of their castes. Lalu will have to fix this. A huge chunk of the forward vote is drifting away from Nitish after the Panchayat reservation issue, Lalu needs to win at least some of them, before it is all gone to the BJP.

The cloud of corruption and the lawlessness during the last days of the Lalu-Rabri regime are still afresh in the minds of the people of Bihar. He needs to clean the slate and assure the electors of a makeover of Bihar and the RJD, something like he did during his Railway Ministry days.

Lalu with Jyoti Basu

Ram Vilas Paswan has shown in the past that he can hop anywhere, from the NDA to the UPA to being with anyone where he can get power. This can also be a reason for worry for Lalu. Now that Nitish has broken off with the BJP and Congress is already giving feelers to Nitish, Paswan would be always ready to join them. This way the combination will be stronger than that of which Lalu, Paswan and Congress can make. Lalu will have to keep this in mind and keep ready an alternative arrangement, may be a front with smaller players- the Left parties.

Lalu, wife Rabri and brother in law Sadhu Yadav

The former CM of Bihar will also have to shed the image of a man who gives all the power to his family. Two CMs (Lalu and Rabri) and two de-facto CMs (Subhash and Sadhu) in the family factor dented his image very badly. He will have to assure not only to the people that he is not going to repeat it but also to the members of his party.

In any case, the former CM of Bihar has not much to lose. The strength of his party in the assembly and the Parliament is very small. He has nothing to lose. If he manages to keep his flock intact, use his secular card well, with a bit of support from the upper castes, he can come out with flying colors.

Lalu's sons: Tejasvi and Tej Pratap

But the Bihar Ka Doctor (Lalu has claimed in the past that he is a Doctor of Bihar politics and can read the pulse) needs to keep steps faster than Engineer Sahab – Nitish Kumar. Nitish has shown that he can engineer the best of the alliance, the most unlikely ones can be cobbled together and the state can be ruled.

Next: Nitish Kumar’s Engineering and mechanism….