Is it the end for Lalu?

It was known. He will have to go to jail. But still, friend and foes, alike, kept stuck to their TV sets. Waiting for the verdict to come out. Some were asking the god for a 7-years jail term for the majestic leader of Bihar, the worst he could have got, and others were just hoping for a small jail term. Came the verdict out: five years in jail and Rs 25 lakhs as fine.

“It’s on expected lines, whoever works for the poor, gets punished. It’s a conspiracy. He was our leader and will remain to be,” roared Ram Kripal Yadav, a former RJD MP and close confidante of Lalu.

The verdict not only pushes the former CM of Bihar behind the bars, but also makes him to lose his Parliamentary seat. Adding to the woes of Lalu is the new norm set by the SC, which debars him from contesting elections for the next 11-years. The jail term and an added six years.

The Unperturbed Lalu 

Now the focus is not Lalu going to jail, but who will succeed him? Who will charm the state and the electorate Lalu held? Will it slip from the RJD in the absence of Lalu Prasad? All depends on the future moves of the Rashtriya Janata Dal.

The race to succession

There are quite a few names doing the rounds. Leading the pack is Raghuvansh Prasad Singh, Abdul Bari Siddiqui, Rabri Devi, Lalu’s son Tejasvi and daughter Misa Bharti.

If we go by the history of the party and what Lalu has done, it would be someone from the family. Rabri, Tejasvi or Misa. But what some say in the RJD is this time Lalu will not repeat what he did when he was forced to resign as CM Bihar. In quite an arbitrary manner, Rabri was installed as the CM of Bihar after Lalu was packed off to jail.

Abdul Bari Siddiqui with Lalu

Lalu has at least two good choices out of his family to succeed him: Raghuvansh Prasad Singh and Abdul Bari Siddiqui. Both Raghuvansh and Abdul Bari has been with Lalu through the tough times, both served the party when future was looking down.

There are some other names in the party like Ram Kripal Yadav, but they don’t command things like the two above do.

Raghuvansh carries with him a tag of being someone very popular, with a hold over his electorate and one who never had a brush with corruption. Apart from these Raghuvansh Singh is one of the most popular Rajput leader of Bihar, something the party can cash on. It can hope to garner some of the Rajput votes apart from the party’s natural voters.

The second choice, Abdul Bari Siddiqui, is a known Muslim face of Bihar. A very old Samajwadi, known as an honest and genuine man. His elevation can further consolidate the party’s Muslim vote bank. 

Going with these choices would not only consolidate votes of the constituencies mentioned but will also help RJD to shed its Lalu & Sons tag.

Raghuvansh Prasad Singh

If someone from the family is given reign of the party it will need a very tactical handling, no one in Lalu’s family is Jagan. They need to be. They need to learn from Jaganmohan Reddy, how he catapulted into a mass leader after the demise of his father.

The elevation of a family member will invoke fear in the RJD leaders and cadres that this party will always be led by the Lalu clan and no one else can go on top. Tejasvi has a lot of time by his side, he can wait. Senior party leaders will not accept him easily, so will be the case if Misa is given the control.

The only choice from the family which can be of some discourse would be former CM and Lalu’s wife Rabri Devi. But that won’t be any easy; RJD will not gain much from that.

Devil’s Advocate

For RJD & the Lalu family: Turning problems into opportunity

It’s a very sad for any son to see his father going to jail. It was even sadder for Jagan when he lost his father. But he turned his problem into opportunity. Same needs to be emulated in Bihar. Someone from the family needs to carry the message of the father, to the people of Bihar. It’s fair in politics.

The moment is opportune; there is a political turmoil in Bihar. Electors are still to make up their minds. The side effects of the break-up between Nitish and the BJP are yet to subside. In the last few months Nitish Kumar has also faced resistance and protests. He is also grappling to get things back to what they were.  

Misa and Tejasvi

There are words from Bihar that the OBC constituent is giving a serious think to go with the Modi bandwagon. A subtle message is being passed that an OBC leader is very close to the throne of Delhi and needs just a small push; this may work.

Of the OBC lot the most vulnerable are the Yadavs, they have been out of power for long now. There leader is behind the bars and if they don’t see things work for the RJD, they might prove to be lucky for the saffron brigade in the state.

If this works, it will hit the RJD badly. The target of the BJP are not the JD (U) voters but the voters of the RJD.

In such circumstances it becomes very important for the RJD and Lalu family to keep the flock together. One or two members of the family, preferably Misa and Tejasvi, should start something like a door to door visit. Invoking sentiments and consolidating their constituency. They are fresh faces, kids of the man who ruled Bihar for so long, the emotions will work. Bihar votes more on emotion (read caste) than anything else. If the family just succeeds in keeping the RJD vote share of the last elections intact, they will come out with flying colours. Once again, they need to project someone from out of the family as Lalu’s substitute while he is in jail. In such situation Abdul Bari Siddiqui seems to be the best bet. The MY combination cobbled by Lalu can be re-worked on and can further be cemented with the strong presence of the Modi factor in Bihar.

The calculations

Remember the elections of 2010. It was a wave of Nitish Kumar alliance. JD (U) won 115 seats of the 141 it contested, while partner BJP won on 91 out of the 102 seats contested. Here it is worth mentioning the vote shares. The JD (U) got 22.61 percent of votes, while the BJP had garnered 16.46 percent votes.

In contrast, RJD had a vote share of 18.84 percent, but could manage only 22 seats, its partner LJP got 6.75 percent of the votes and won only 3 seats. The Congress had 4-seats with a good 8.38 percent vote share.

The JD (U) and the BJP no more in a marriage, it’s over. This has changed the scenario a lot. That’s where it’s a more worrisome situation for Nitish Kumar.

Bihar CM Nitish Kumar

If the JD (U) – BJP alliance was able to get their votes transferred even a small 5 percent in total in the last election to each other, the separation is going to cost them a lot. Lalu’s party is still with LJP and survey’s claim that Lalu has gained ground. Though it’s not sure which side will the Congress go! The grand old party hardly matters in Bihar, though has a good vote share which can work for the alliance partner, if votes are transferred.

2010 Election Data: Vote share

The combined vote share of the RJD, the LJP and the Congress was 34 per cent. Add the Left parties, and the vote share increases marginally to 36.40 per cent — still some distance behind the 39 per cent jointly polled by the JD (U) and the BJP. The JD (U) and the BJP outperformed their principal opponents, the RJD and the LJP in every region of the State. The former had a lead of over 10 percentage points in all but one region, Mithila, where the RJD-LJP polled 27.5 per cent to the JD (U)-BJP's 36 per cent. The region-wise comparative shares of the rivals: Ang: JD(U)-BJP 37.7 per cent and RJD-LJP 26.50 per cent; Koshi: JD(U)-BJP 39.8 per and RJD-LJP 22 per cent; Mithila: JD(U)-BJP 36 per cent and RJD-LJP 27.5 per cent; Tirhut: JD(U)-BJP 38.5 per cent and RJD-LJP 24 per cent; Bhojpur: JD(U)-BJP 37.5 per cent and RJD-LJP 25.9 per cent; Magadh: JD(U)-BJP 43.9 per cent and RJD-LJP 28.1 per cent.

Take your call, who benefits, how will it work? J J J

Next: Nitish Kumar, the times to come.