Friday, September 19, 2014

Will Modi pick BJP’s Delhi CM candidate and risk a revolt?


Delhi: Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) name someone as the chief ministerial candidate in the run up to the Delhi assembly elections? Or will it go without naming anyone to avoid any kind of revolt in the party? If we go by the developments in Lutyen’s Delhi last week, the decision will be a tough one for the party, with the capital’s state unit divided between Vijay Goel and Harsh Vardhan’s camps, and the Aam Admi party making steady inroads in the anti-Congress vote.

Now the task is in the hands of the party’s “magician” Narendra Modi. On 20 October, Mr Modi will be in Delhi to attend the central election committee meeting to finalize the candidates for Chhattisgarh. However sources within the BJP said that a meeting of the parliamentary board is also likely to be held, mainly to discuss the Delhi situation.

Mr Goel’s camp suggested that the party might go into the elections without announcing a name for the top job. But this is unacceptable to the upbeat Modi camp. “We don’t want to take any chances before the general elections,” a senior BJP leader told PI. “If we lose Delhi, it would be termed as a Modi failure. By naming a chief ministerial candidate, we can protect the image of our prime ministerial candidate.”

The infighting in Delhi BJP has now spilled into the open. First, the name of Harsh Vardhan was leaked to the media by the camp of a very senior BJP leader as their choice for the Delhi chief minister. The same day, when Dr Harshvardhan’s name was being flashed all over the TV channels, Vijay Goel pitched his name as the party’s candidate for the Delhi CM in a press conference. The party was embarrassed and it came out with a press release saying, “The party has not decided on anyone as the chief ministerial candidate and only the parliamentary board will decide on the candidate.”

The Goel Vs Vardhan debate

Both Vijay Goel and Harsh Vardhan have long political careers behind them in Delhi. But what matters in politics is perception and lobbying, and that will ultimately seal their fate.

Mr Vardhan’s name did not figure anywhere if we turn the pages just a month back, and Mr Goel seemed a shoo-in for the nomination. Even the posters of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) compared their candidate Arvind Kejriwal to Mr Goel and the current chief minister Sheila Dixit. However, the last few days have changed the dynamics dramatically, with even opponents of Mr Vardhan admitting privately that he now has an edge over Mr Goel.

“There is a basic difference between the two,” said a senior BJP leader, “Harsh Vardhan keeps a low profile, is known for his clean image, commands respect in the Delhi circuit. Not that Goel sahab is not fit to be the CM, but his image is different on the scales that are now being used in the Delhi elections.” Added another leader, “It’s Harshavardhan or no one for us.”

What also gives Mr Vardhan the edge is the strong backing of the Rashtriya Swayam Sevak Sangh, which is likely to turn the tables in his favor. The Delhi BJP in-charge Nitin Gadkari and Mr Modi cannot say “no” to the RSS choice.

So this leaves the BJP in a big dilemma: they cannot go without a name as it may hit their man in the race to 7 Race Course Road. They will have to name someone to insulate Mr Modi from a BJP loss in Delhi. If they name Mr Goel, undecided voters are likely to drift towards Arvind Kejriwal. If they name Harsh Vardhan they may win back some voters due to his clean image, but will also risk a revolt by Vijay Goel who has a loyal band of supporters in the Delhi BJP.

Whatever decision the BJP and Mr Modi take, some feathers will be ruffled.

- This story was first published in www.thepoliticalindian.com on October 19, 2013

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