BJP plans Delhi coup after 16 May
April 17, 2014
Delhi: While India is busy voting for the Lok Sabha, BJP managers in Delhi are planning an attempt to form the next state government in the national capital after the general elections are over. Sources in BJP say they are in touch with some Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) MLAs, who may resign from the legislature or throw their weight with the BJP after the parliamentary elections. The BJP, which had won 32 seats earlier, would push itself into majority with their support.
“Yes, it’s natural, there will be an attempt to form a government in Delhi after results of the general elections,” confirmed a spokesperson. “No one wants fresh elections, including AAP MLA’s. Also Arvind Kejriwal’s halo is fading and his party legislators realize that.”
BJP’s plan hinges on two Lok Sabha results going in its favor: the seven seats in Delhi and the head-to-head battle between Narendra Modi and Arvind Kejriwal in Varanasi. If they get four or more seats in Delhi and Narendra Modi wins Varanasi, the BJP will claim a moral right to then go ahead and engineer the defections from AAP, while Arvind Kejriwal will be at his most vulnerable.
“We think we are winning Delhi six-one, and if we do that the tide will turn in our favor,” said the BJP spokesperson. Another BJP leader gave further details: several Aam Aadmi Party MLA’s may go the Vinod Kumar Binny way and force AAP to oust them, or they could well resign and push the BJP into a majority. Delhi’s BJP leaders are now waiting with anticipation for the results on 16 May: any overt move before that could harm its Lok Sabha chances, and instructions have come right from the top to lie low till the Lok Sabha results are announced.
But the Aam Aadmi Party is banking on the anti-defection law to stop the BJP from preying on its MLAs. Their leader Manish Sisodia said that the BJP’s dreams of forming the Delhi government will remain unfulfilled. “They can’t do it unless 18 MLAs decide to resign and form a new party,” he said.
AAP’s strategic blunder?
With most opinion polls predicting bleak results for the Aam Admi Party in the Lok Sabha elections, and its MLAs now vulnerable to BJP’s poaching, many are wondering if the party committed a strategic blunder by resigning from the Delhi government after 49 days in power. Arvind Kejriwal has already admitted that his decision to quit did not go well with the public, and now his party stands to lose out even more if the BJP’s plans fall into place.
But what he seems to have overlooked is that the decision to form the Delhi government in the first place was his biggest strategic mistake. Till then the AAP was a successful guerilla movement that has shaken up the status quo: it had done unexpectedly well in the Delhi elections, and seemed to have all the momentum and middle-class support. It had managed to paint the BJP and Congress with the same brush to a great extent, particularly on corruption and campaign finance.
But once the guerilla movement became the establishment, its charm seemed to evaporate. Without a majority in the Delhi assembly the Kejriwal government failed to pass its signature legislations, its minsters got embroiled in controversies, and the BJP got an opportunity to project it as the B-team of the Congress. When Kejriwal decided to resign, it seemed that he was shirking responsibility, that he was trying to scale up AAP to the national level too soon, without having the resources to do so. Barring major surprises on 16 May, in a matter of a few months the Aam Aadmi Party can go from being a hot political start-up to one whose future is uncertain.
BJP rides the wave
AAP’s performance in Delhi had shaken the BJP campaign, which was till then going to plan. It had found itself on the backfoot to AAP’s guerilla strategy for a while, with AAP’s high moral posturing making it impossible for the BJP to engineer defections at that time to form a government in Delhi.
But now, with opinion polls predicting its best performance ever in the Lok Sabha, and if many Delhi voters stick to their stated position of “Kejriwal as chief minister and Modi as prime minister”, the BJP will have the upper hand in causing defections in the AAP ranks to form a government in Delhi.
One of two things can change this scenario: AAP winning more Lok Sabha seats than BJP in Delhi, or Arvind Kejriwal beating Narendra Modi in Varanasi. Neither task will be easy.
April 17, 2014
Delhi: While India is busy voting for the Lok Sabha, BJP managers in Delhi are planning an attempt to form the next state government in the national capital after the general elections are over. Sources in BJP say they are in touch with some Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) MLAs, who may resign from the legislature or throw their weight with the BJP after the parliamentary elections. The BJP, which had won 32 seats earlier, would push itself into majority with their support.
“Yes, it’s natural, there will be an attempt to form a government in Delhi after results of the general elections,” confirmed a spokesperson. “No one wants fresh elections, including AAP MLA’s. Also Arvind Kejriwal’s halo is fading and his party legislators realize that.”
BJP’s plan hinges on two Lok Sabha results going in its favor: the seven seats in Delhi and the head-to-head battle between Narendra Modi and Arvind Kejriwal in Varanasi. If they get four or more seats in Delhi and Narendra Modi wins Varanasi, the BJP will claim a moral right to then go ahead and engineer the defections from AAP, while Arvind Kejriwal will be at his most vulnerable.
“We think we are winning Delhi six-one, and if we do that the tide will turn in our favor,” said the BJP spokesperson. Another BJP leader gave further details: several Aam Aadmi Party MLA’s may go the Vinod Kumar Binny way and force AAP to oust them, or they could well resign and push the BJP into a majority. Delhi’s BJP leaders are now waiting with anticipation for the results on 16 May: any overt move before that could harm its Lok Sabha chances, and instructions have come right from the top to lie low till the Lok Sabha results are announced.
But the Aam Aadmi Party is banking on the anti-defection law to stop the BJP from preying on its MLAs. Their leader Manish Sisodia said that the BJP’s dreams of forming the Delhi government will remain unfulfilled. “They can’t do it unless 18 MLAs decide to resign and form a new party,” he said.
AAP’s strategic blunder?
With most opinion polls predicting bleak results for the Aam Admi Party in the Lok Sabha elections, and its MLAs now vulnerable to BJP’s poaching, many are wondering if the party committed a strategic blunder by resigning from the Delhi government after 49 days in power. Arvind Kejriwal has already admitted that his decision to quit did not go well with the public, and now his party stands to lose out even more if the BJP’s plans fall into place.
But what he seems to have overlooked is that the decision to form the Delhi government in the first place was his biggest strategic mistake. Till then the AAP was a successful guerilla movement that has shaken up the status quo: it had done unexpectedly well in the Delhi elections, and seemed to have all the momentum and middle-class support. It had managed to paint the BJP and Congress with the same brush to a great extent, particularly on corruption and campaign finance.
But once the guerilla movement became the establishment, its charm seemed to evaporate. Without a majority in the Delhi assembly the Kejriwal government failed to pass its signature legislations, its minsters got embroiled in controversies, and the BJP got an opportunity to project it as the B-team of the Congress. When Kejriwal decided to resign, it seemed that he was shirking responsibility, that he was trying to scale up AAP to the national level too soon, without having the resources to do so. Barring major surprises on 16 May, in a matter of a few months the Aam Aadmi Party can go from being a hot political start-up to one whose future is uncertain.
BJP rides the wave
AAP’s performance in Delhi had shaken the BJP campaign, which was till then going to plan. It had found itself on the backfoot to AAP’s guerilla strategy for a while, with AAP’s high moral posturing making it impossible for the BJP to engineer defections at that time to form a government in Delhi.
But now, with opinion polls predicting its best performance ever in the Lok Sabha, and if many Delhi voters stick to their stated position of “Kejriwal as chief minister and Modi as prime minister”, the BJP will have the upper hand in causing defections in the AAP ranks to form a government in Delhi.
One of two things can change this scenario: AAP winning more Lok Sabha seats than BJP in Delhi, or Arvind Kejriwal beating Narendra Modi in Varanasi. Neither task will be easy.
-
This story was first published in www.thepoliticalindian.com on April 17, 2014
No comments:
Post a Comment