The backstory on AAP’s high stake strategy
February 14, 2014
New Delhi: It was just a matter of time: Arvind Kejriwal had made up his mind to resign as Delhi chief minister of Delhi a week ago. There could have been no better issue to resign than the flagship anti-corruption Janlokpal Bill. There could not have been a better way to establish the equivalence between Congress and BJP, a key strategy of his party that paid dividends in the Delhi elections.
This decision was not impetuous: it was carefully thought out, and it seems Mr Kejriwal has been able to maneuver events to suit his party perfectly.
With the Delhi government in minority and unable to push through much of its agenda, it was becoming more of a liability than an asset for the Aam Admi Party. The implementation of cheap electricity and free water had hurdles; there was an open conflict with the Delhi Police and the central government on several issues; there was rebellion within the party and unprecedented media scrutiny of his government.
Eye on Lok Sabha
The scripting of the resignation also gives Mr Kejriwal an anti-corruption martyr’s halo, as the party prepares for the Lok Sabha elections. He will now hard-sell the emotive Janlokpal Bill. He will also target Mukesh Ambani’s “funding” of both BJP and Congress: with the two big parties opaque about their funding, it is an accusation that could stick. His speeches in the assembly and after his resignation both linked the BJP and Congress’ non-cooperation on Janlokpal to the FIRs that were filed against Mr Ambani.
If they continued in government, Mr Kejriwal would not have been able to campaign extensively in the country and AAP’s performance was set to take a hit, barring the seven seats of Delhi. AAP’s strategists believe that they can garner strong support in around 125-150 seats in the general elections, but only if there is a focused campaign with Arvind Kejriwal at the forefront. The party plans to fight an ambitious 350 seats.
Earlier this week, the announcement of the first list of Lok Sabha candidates by AAP was postponed as Mr Kejriwal prepared to take a call on his resignation. The party knows that it needs to work on several problem areas, particularly finding strong local candidates in the Hindi heartland.
Both in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, which send 120 Members to Parliament together, the Aam Admi Party has very few credible faces. Opinion polls show Narendra Modi making strong inroads in these states: this is where Arvind Kejriwal can have maximum impact, and is most needed. The AAP top brass sees the Congress as a spent force: the main target from now on will be the BJP, who will be equated with the discredited Congress.
The dilemma of the big parties
The Congress fared poorly in the Delhi assembly elections and is staring at an unprecedented drubbing in the Lok Sabha elections. They were hoping for Mr Kejriwal to fail as chief minister: but they also wanted to keep him in office till the Lok Sabha elections, distracted and unable to campaign with full force.
Many BJP leaders also wanted Mr Kejriwal to remain in government till the Lok Sabha polls as they fear that his campaign will hit the party in urban pockets. But others wanted a re-election in Delhi along with the Lok Sabha, hoping to cash in on the Modi effect.
Even before he took office, Mr Kejriwal knew that his minority government was not going to last the full term: the plan was to fulfill some big promises on electricity, water and corruption quickly, and then resign at the right time. Getting the moment right was important, as was the motive: at least from the enthusiasm of his supporters it looks like he has got the moment and motive right, leaving the two big parties flat footed.
February 14, 2014
New Delhi: It was just a matter of time: Arvind Kejriwal had made up his mind to resign as Delhi chief minister of Delhi a week ago. There could have been no better issue to resign than the flagship anti-corruption Janlokpal Bill. There could not have been a better way to establish the equivalence between Congress and BJP, a key strategy of his party that paid dividends in the Delhi elections.
This decision was not impetuous: it was carefully thought out, and it seems Mr Kejriwal has been able to maneuver events to suit his party perfectly.
With the Delhi government in minority and unable to push through much of its agenda, it was becoming more of a liability than an asset for the Aam Admi Party. The implementation of cheap electricity and free water had hurdles; there was an open conflict with the Delhi Police and the central government on several issues; there was rebellion within the party and unprecedented media scrutiny of his government.
Eye on Lok Sabha
The scripting of the resignation also gives Mr Kejriwal an anti-corruption martyr’s halo, as the party prepares for the Lok Sabha elections. He will now hard-sell the emotive Janlokpal Bill. He will also target Mukesh Ambani’s “funding” of both BJP and Congress: with the two big parties opaque about their funding, it is an accusation that could stick. His speeches in the assembly and after his resignation both linked the BJP and Congress’ non-cooperation on Janlokpal to the FIRs that were filed against Mr Ambani.
If they continued in government, Mr Kejriwal would not have been able to campaign extensively in the country and AAP’s performance was set to take a hit, barring the seven seats of Delhi. AAP’s strategists believe that they can garner strong support in around 125-150 seats in the general elections, but only if there is a focused campaign with Arvind Kejriwal at the forefront. The party plans to fight an ambitious 350 seats.
Earlier this week, the announcement of the first list of Lok Sabha candidates by AAP was postponed as Mr Kejriwal prepared to take a call on his resignation. The party knows that it needs to work on several problem areas, particularly finding strong local candidates in the Hindi heartland.
Both in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, which send 120 Members to Parliament together, the Aam Admi Party has very few credible faces. Opinion polls show Narendra Modi making strong inroads in these states: this is where Arvind Kejriwal can have maximum impact, and is most needed. The AAP top brass sees the Congress as a spent force: the main target from now on will be the BJP, who will be equated with the discredited Congress.
The dilemma of the big parties
The Congress fared poorly in the Delhi assembly elections and is staring at an unprecedented drubbing in the Lok Sabha elections. They were hoping for Mr Kejriwal to fail as chief minister: but they also wanted to keep him in office till the Lok Sabha elections, distracted and unable to campaign with full force.
Many BJP leaders also wanted Mr Kejriwal to remain in government till the Lok Sabha polls as they fear that his campaign will hit the party in urban pockets. But others wanted a re-election in Delhi along with the Lok Sabha, hoping to cash in on the Modi effect.
Even before he took office, Mr Kejriwal knew that his minority government was not going to last the full term: the plan was to fulfill some big promises on electricity, water and corruption quickly, and then resign at the right time. Getting the moment right was important, as was the motive: at least from the enthusiasm of his supporters it looks like he has got the moment and motive right, leaving the two big parties flat footed.
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This story was first published in www.thepoliticalindian.com on February 14,
2014
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