Can the Modi duo win over Bihar’s backward castes?
October 26, 2013
Patna: Narendra Modi’s covert campaign in Bihar started way back when Nitish Kumar first said that he was against Mr Modi being named campaign chief of the Bharatiya Janata Party. A section of the Bihar BJP was convinced since last year that the BJP-Janata Dal (United) combine will fall apart. They took it seriously and started their campaign on the ground, building brand Modi in Bihar.
The campaign was all about adding the backward caste vote to the BJP’s upper caste base: word was spread that Narendra Modi was a rival backward caste leader and thus Mr Kumar was against him. Add to this the backward caste credentials of Sushil Modi, the Bihar BJP chief, and the party believes that between the two Modis they can wean away some of these castes who make up about 75 percent of Bihar’s voters.
In Bihar, the BJP is primarily seen as a party preferred by the elite – read upper castes – and the business class. This always limited the party in electoral battle. Its numbers soared only after the party allied with Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) and a good number of backward caste votes were transferred to them.
In the state, Narendra Modi is not being projected as a leader who stands for change, development but as a backward caste leader. Constituents are being told that with a backward caste leader so close to 7 Race Course Road, they must rally around him. Mr Modi knows that if the battle is fought only on development or change, Nitish Kumar will get a one up, at least when it comes to Bihar.
The Modi lobby has also won over Upendra Kushwaha, a powerful Koeri leader, who fell out with Nitish Kumar and floated his own party. He commands a good respect in the Koeri community, which is a key votebank of Nitish Kumar. Mr Kushwaha has backed the candidature of Narendra Modi as prime minister, and his Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) is all set to enter into an alliance with the BJP, which can pose a threat to Nitish Kumar sway over non-Yadav backward castes.
The BJP is also working on the Yadav votes, and some Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leaders have already crossed over to the BJP. But with Laloo Prasad Yadav now going to jail it will be interesting to see if there is a sympathy wave in his favor, or the rudderless party splinters, with the BJP reaping the rewards. The Yadavs have been power for long: in the two Modis they may well find backward caste leaders who are ready to their bidding.
BJP has a strong line of upper caste leaders in Bihar like Dr CP Thakur, Ashwini Chaubey, Shatrughan Sinha and Rajiv Pratap Rudy. The business community and the “aspiring middle class and youth” are also strong votaries of Mr Modi. With the right amount of backward caste votes, the BJP can emerge as the dominant player in Bihar.
But there are party spoilers: the JD (U) and RJD are not sitting idle either. While Mr Kumar is trying to cobble up a new alliance with the Congress apart from keeping his own constituency intact; the RJD is trying hard to win back the MY (Muslim-Yadav). Then there is Ram Vilas Paswan who can well be a wild card, particularly if his Lok Janshakti Party ties up with a potential Congress-JD(U) combine.
The battle for Bihar is only just warming up with Mr Modi’s Hunkaar rally in Patna.
October 26, 2013
Patna: Narendra Modi’s covert campaign in Bihar started way back when Nitish Kumar first said that he was against Mr Modi being named campaign chief of the Bharatiya Janata Party. A section of the Bihar BJP was convinced since last year that the BJP-Janata Dal (United) combine will fall apart. They took it seriously and started their campaign on the ground, building brand Modi in Bihar.
The campaign was all about adding the backward caste vote to the BJP’s upper caste base: word was spread that Narendra Modi was a rival backward caste leader and thus Mr Kumar was against him. Add to this the backward caste credentials of Sushil Modi, the Bihar BJP chief, and the party believes that between the two Modis they can wean away some of these castes who make up about 75 percent of Bihar’s voters.
In Bihar, the BJP is primarily seen as a party preferred by the elite – read upper castes – and the business class. This always limited the party in electoral battle. Its numbers soared only after the party allied with Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) and a good number of backward caste votes were transferred to them.
In the state, Narendra Modi is not being projected as a leader who stands for change, development but as a backward caste leader. Constituents are being told that with a backward caste leader so close to 7 Race Course Road, they must rally around him. Mr Modi knows that if the battle is fought only on development or change, Nitish Kumar will get a one up, at least when it comes to Bihar.
The Modi lobby has also won over Upendra Kushwaha, a powerful Koeri leader, who fell out with Nitish Kumar and floated his own party. He commands a good respect in the Koeri community, which is a key votebank of Nitish Kumar. Mr Kushwaha has backed the candidature of Narendra Modi as prime minister, and his Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) is all set to enter into an alliance with the BJP, which can pose a threat to Nitish Kumar sway over non-Yadav backward castes.
The BJP is also working on the Yadav votes, and some Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leaders have already crossed over to the BJP. But with Laloo Prasad Yadav now going to jail it will be interesting to see if there is a sympathy wave in his favor, or the rudderless party splinters, with the BJP reaping the rewards. The Yadavs have been power for long: in the two Modis they may well find backward caste leaders who are ready to their bidding.
BJP has a strong line of upper caste leaders in Bihar like Dr CP Thakur, Ashwini Chaubey, Shatrughan Sinha and Rajiv Pratap Rudy. The business community and the “aspiring middle class and youth” are also strong votaries of Mr Modi. With the right amount of backward caste votes, the BJP can emerge as the dominant player in Bihar.
But there are party spoilers: the JD (U) and RJD are not sitting idle either. While Mr Kumar is trying to cobble up a new alliance with the Congress apart from keeping his own constituency intact; the RJD is trying hard to win back the MY (Muslim-Yadav). Then there is Ram Vilas Paswan who can well be a wild card, particularly if his Lok Janshakti Party ties up with a potential Congress-JD(U) combine.
The battle for Bihar is only just warming up with Mr Modi’s Hunkaar rally in Patna.
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This story was first published in www.thepoliticalindian.com on October 26, 2013
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