Son Chirag stars in Paswan alliance drama
February 26, 2014
New Delhi/Patna: If “secular alliances” is one roadblock in Narendra Modi’s path to prime minister, then Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) is showing up the cracks that already exist in this alliance. Mr Paswan has talked about a potential seat-sharing with the BJP in Bihar: leaving people to wonder if he has called time on the secular alliance or just playing hardball with them.
But behind the latest maneuver of the Dalit leader from Hajipur are three old-school political factors: a CBI case, caste equations and most importantly, an ambitious family led by his actor son Chirag Paswan.
A CBI probe into Bokaro Steel Plant recruitment scam is getting uncomfortably close, with Mr Paswan slated to be questioned soon. His power has been greatly diminished by Nitish Kumar’s caste outreach: the Bihar chief minister put 21 out of the 22 dalit castes in the Mahadalit Commission, leaving out only the Paswans. This has put the political career of Chirag Paswan at stake, as the LJP is squeezed for seats by potential allies. Last time the LJP had not managed to win a single Lok Sabha seat, losing all four they had won in 2004. Ram Vilas Paswan lost from Hajipur, which he had once won with record margins.
The LJP-Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal alliance stumbled over two Lok Sabha seats: Jamui and Samastipur. Ramvilas Paswan wants to field his son from Jamui, while he wants Samastipur for his brother Ramchandra. The Bihar Congress has objections: they want those seats for their senior leaders Ashok Choudhury and Ashok Ram. And this is why Chirag Paswan took the lead and came out in support of Narendra Modi.
Chirag, the only son of Ramvilas Paswan, was an aspiring Bollywood actor: he joined politics after his debut film Mile Na Miley Ham failed to click. He started meeting senior party leaders, made an impression on them by running the social media wing, and was selected the party’s parliamentary board chief last year. Pushing for Narendra Modi within the party is his first big political stand.
Some upper caste leaders within the LJP are also backing the young Mr Paswan’s stand, hoping to see some transfer of the BJP’s popularity among the upper castes. But what could emerge, as a tricky subject is the Paswan family’s insistence that their party would fight at least 7-8 seats. Chirag Paswan has had meetings with some top BJP leaders and sources close to the young Paswan say that a deal is almost sealed. On record, Chirag Paswan calls this mere speculation and the parliamentary board, which he heads, will take the decision.
With his son taking the lead on rapprochement with Mr Modi, Ram Vilas Paswan also gets some breathing space: he was after all the first minister to resign from the NDA government over the 2002 Gujarat riots. His U-turn will seem less farcical with his son taking the decision. In pure caste math, the Paswan’s calculate that the transfer of BJP’s upper caste base can make up for the minority votes they will lose by aligning with Mr Modi’s party.
BJP’s Delhi leaders are upbeat about the alliance, which they say only require a stamp of approval from prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, which could happen in the next couple of days. They calculate that Mr Paswan’s Dalit votes would help them get over their Muslim weakness.
But the Bihar BJP is not in a very welcoming mood: many in the state leadership think Mr Paswan a losing deal for the party. One Bihar BJP leader Ashwini Chaubey said that the alliance with LJP would be suicidal and called Mr Paswan an opportunist politician. There is fear that the party rank and file will be demoralized if seats are given away to allies.
The Paswans are not merely eyeing the Lok Sabha elections, but also the assembly elections slated for next year. If they go with the RJD-Congress or with the Janata Dal (United), the chief minister’s post is not vacant. But with BJP Mr Paswan hopes to make a deal, whereby he gets a shot at chief ministership in alliance with the BJP, and in return he may concede an extra Lok Sabha seats for Mr Modi’s prime ministerial campaign.
Mr Paswan has mostly sided with the winner, with ideological differences playing second fiddle to political expediency. His latest move could be seen in that light, as a continuance of political opportunism; or it can be seen as a first signs of generational change within the party, son Chirag’s first strategic move.
February 26, 2014
New Delhi/Patna: If “secular alliances” is one roadblock in Narendra Modi’s path to prime minister, then Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) is showing up the cracks that already exist in this alliance. Mr Paswan has talked about a potential seat-sharing with the BJP in Bihar: leaving people to wonder if he has called time on the secular alliance or just playing hardball with them.
But behind the latest maneuver of the Dalit leader from Hajipur are three old-school political factors: a CBI case, caste equations and most importantly, an ambitious family led by his actor son Chirag Paswan.
A CBI probe into Bokaro Steel Plant recruitment scam is getting uncomfortably close, with Mr Paswan slated to be questioned soon. His power has been greatly diminished by Nitish Kumar’s caste outreach: the Bihar chief minister put 21 out of the 22 dalit castes in the Mahadalit Commission, leaving out only the Paswans. This has put the political career of Chirag Paswan at stake, as the LJP is squeezed for seats by potential allies. Last time the LJP had not managed to win a single Lok Sabha seat, losing all four they had won in 2004. Ram Vilas Paswan lost from Hajipur, which he had once won with record margins.
The LJP-Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal alliance stumbled over two Lok Sabha seats: Jamui and Samastipur. Ramvilas Paswan wants to field his son from Jamui, while he wants Samastipur for his brother Ramchandra. The Bihar Congress has objections: they want those seats for their senior leaders Ashok Choudhury and Ashok Ram. And this is why Chirag Paswan took the lead and came out in support of Narendra Modi.
Chirag, the only son of Ramvilas Paswan, was an aspiring Bollywood actor: he joined politics after his debut film Mile Na Miley Ham failed to click. He started meeting senior party leaders, made an impression on them by running the social media wing, and was selected the party’s parliamentary board chief last year. Pushing for Narendra Modi within the party is his first big political stand.
Some upper caste leaders within the LJP are also backing the young Mr Paswan’s stand, hoping to see some transfer of the BJP’s popularity among the upper castes. But what could emerge, as a tricky subject is the Paswan family’s insistence that their party would fight at least 7-8 seats. Chirag Paswan has had meetings with some top BJP leaders and sources close to the young Paswan say that a deal is almost sealed. On record, Chirag Paswan calls this mere speculation and the parliamentary board, which he heads, will take the decision.
With his son taking the lead on rapprochement with Mr Modi, Ram Vilas Paswan also gets some breathing space: he was after all the first minister to resign from the NDA government over the 2002 Gujarat riots. His U-turn will seem less farcical with his son taking the decision. In pure caste math, the Paswan’s calculate that the transfer of BJP’s upper caste base can make up for the minority votes they will lose by aligning with Mr Modi’s party.
BJP’s Delhi leaders are upbeat about the alliance, which they say only require a stamp of approval from prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, which could happen in the next couple of days. They calculate that Mr Paswan’s Dalit votes would help them get over their Muslim weakness.
But the Bihar BJP is not in a very welcoming mood: many in the state leadership think Mr Paswan a losing deal for the party. One Bihar BJP leader Ashwini Chaubey said that the alliance with LJP would be suicidal and called Mr Paswan an opportunist politician. There is fear that the party rank and file will be demoralized if seats are given away to allies.
The Paswans are not merely eyeing the Lok Sabha elections, but also the assembly elections slated for next year. If they go with the RJD-Congress or with the Janata Dal (United), the chief minister’s post is not vacant. But with BJP Mr Paswan hopes to make a deal, whereby he gets a shot at chief ministership in alliance with the BJP, and in return he may concede an extra Lok Sabha seats for Mr Modi’s prime ministerial campaign.
Mr Paswan has mostly sided with the winner, with ideological differences playing second fiddle to political expediency. His latest move could be seen in that light, as a continuance of political opportunism; or it can be seen as a first signs of generational change within the party, son Chirag’s first strategic move.
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This story was first published in www.thepoliticalindian.com on February 26,
2014
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