Friday, September 19, 2014

Dissent, fear grip Nitish Kumar’s party in Bihar

January 31, 2014

Patna: It has been a difficult winter for Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar: and he is now getting the cold vibes from his own partymen and long time associates. Two of his Rajya Sabha MPs, Shivanand Tiwari and NK Singh have refused Mr Kumar’s offer to contest Lok Sabha polls this time, in a clear indication that they fear a poor showing by the ruling Janata Dal (United).

Mr Tiwari has been blunt: “Nitish Kumar wants me to lose the elections, that is why he is giving me a Lok Sabha ticket.” Mr Tiwari had earlier fallen out publicly with Nitish Kumar over the latter’s decision to pull out of the NDA. “How can I contest for a man who hates me?”

More surprising perhaps is the exclusion of former bureaucrat NK Singh from the Rajya Sabha list. The urbane face of the JD(U), Mr Singh was a bridge between Mr Kumar and the central government, several industrialists and the Delhi media. Party insiders said that not being able to secure special economic status for Bihar was the reason for Mr Singh’s exclusion.

NK Singh was working behind the scenes with Planning Commission Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia, to secure the special status, a major demand of Nitish Kumar. Mr Singh is also the brother of BJP MP from Purnea Mr Uday Singh, who is a bitter critic of Nitish Kumar.

“This offer (to contest the Lok Sabha) was indeed surprising, albeit a cavalier one, since I had undertaken no preparatory work in the constituency,” Mr Singh wrote to the Bihar chief minister. “Foisting any individual without prior consultation with the constituents may be grossly unfair to them.”

The third Rajya Sabha MP Sabir Ali too has been replaced and offered a Lok Sabha ticket. The JD(U)’s new Rajya Sabha nominees are Ramnath Thakur (son of well-known socialist Karpoori Thakur), Harivansh (editor of Prabhat Khabar, a leading local paper) and Kahkasha Praveen. Mr Ali is also said to be upset with the party boss.

JD(U)’s sinking fortunes

And its not just these leaders who have been denied tickets who are blaming Mr Kumar. There is now a larger dissent among the party’s rank and file over what they believe was their chief’s political miscalculation: pulling out of the NDA over Narendra Modi’s elevation to BJP’s leadership. Recent opinion poll results and the alliance math is clearly showing that Mr Kumar’s decision has backfired.

The India Today–C Voter survey predicted the JD (U) would get 4 seats (down from the current 19) in the coming elections, with the BJP getting 22 seats, and Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal getting 11 seats. Another survey conducted by CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS gave Nitish Kumar’s party between 7 and 13 seats.

While Mr Kumar had earlier hoped to seal an alliance with the Congress and Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janashakti Party, these two now seem to be on the verge of sealing an alliance with Lalu Prasad Yadav. This “secular alliance”, if it happens, will further hurt the prospects of the JD(U), by consolidating the Muslim votes which Mr Kumar was banking on when he quit the NDA.

Nitish Kumar, who has run the show in Bihar for the last 8 years, and was even being touted as a potential prime ministerial candidate a few months back, now faces the most challenging time of his political career. He has burnt bridges with his old allies, and has not been able to connect to new ones. And now he faces open dissent within his own party.


- This story was first published in www.thepoliticalindian.com on January 31, 2014

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