Why a Congress-Nitish alliance still has hurdles
Patna: Never say never – an adage that holds true in politics, and more so in the heartland politics of India. Laloo Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar came into politics on an anti-Congress political plank. And yet, today they are vying with each other for a tie-up with the grand old party in Bihar.
Within the Congress there is still no clarity on a future course of action. Sources inform PI that while Sonia Gandhi still favors going with Mr Yadav, Rahul Gandhi favors a go-it-alone policy, and only in the worst case scenario, a tie-up with Mr Kumar. Mr Gandhi wants to build the party in the state, but pressure from some top Congress leaders might force him to make up his mind in favor of an alliance with the Janata Dal (United). What might precipitate the alliance is a poor showing by the Congress party in the November state elections and the inevitable momentum Narendra Modi would get from a positive result for the BJP.
But, apart from Rahul Gandhi’s diffidence, there is another catch to the Congress tie-up with Mr Kumar: experts suggest that Muslim votes will consolidate better if the Congress allied with Mr Yadav’s RJD, rather than with Mr Kumar. In the last Bihar state elections, Congress managed to get 8.38 percent of votes. But with the state’s 17 percent Muslims expected to consolidate behind the Congress party, it can play a decisive role. Nitish Kumar has done his best to woo Muslims by snapping his ties with BJP, but his long association with the National Democratic Alliance and Lal Krishna Advani still counts against him.
To add to his woes, the BJP is circulating CDs of Nitish Kumar praising Narendra Modi; these CDs were recently sent to all media houses by Mr Modi’s acolytes and got significant airtime. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) also plans to hit Mr Kumar where it hurts: they are planning to highlight his earlier proximity with the BJP.
In all Nitish is at the receiving end in Bihar at the moment: a tie-up with Congress is his best option, and it may just deliver Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) as a bonus. This would make a formidable coalition of Dalits, Muslims and non-Yadav backward castes, who constitute roughly three-quarters of the population.
Apart from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Rahul Gandhi who have both termed Mr Kumar “secular”, other Congress leaders have also been praising the Bihar chief minister; his demands, like special status for his state, are also being met, much to the discomfort of the old ally Laloo Prasad Yadav. But the Congress-Nitish Kumar alliance still has a few hurdles to cross.
- - This story was first published in www.thepoliticalindian.com on October 21, 2013
Within the Congress there is still no clarity on a future course of action. Sources inform PI that while Sonia Gandhi still favors going with Mr Yadav, Rahul Gandhi favors a go-it-alone policy, and only in the worst case scenario, a tie-up with Mr Kumar. Mr Gandhi wants to build the party in the state, but pressure from some top Congress leaders might force him to make up his mind in favor of an alliance with the Janata Dal (United). What might precipitate the alliance is a poor showing by the Congress party in the November state elections and the inevitable momentum Narendra Modi would get from a positive result for the BJP.
But, apart from Rahul Gandhi’s diffidence, there is another catch to the Congress tie-up with Mr Kumar: experts suggest that Muslim votes will consolidate better if the Congress allied with Mr Yadav’s RJD, rather than with Mr Kumar. In the last Bihar state elections, Congress managed to get 8.38 percent of votes. But with the state’s 17 percent Muslims expected to consolidate behind the Congress party, it can play a decisive role. Nitish Kumar has done his best to woo Muslims by snapping his ties with BJP, but his long association with the National Democratic Alliance and Lal Krishna Advani still counts against him.
To add to his woes, the BJP is circulating CDs of Nitish Kumar praising Narendra Modi; these CDs were recently sent to all media houses by Mr Modi’s acolytes and got significant airtime. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) also plans to hit Mr Kumar where it hurts: they are planning to highlight his earlier proximity with the BJP.
In all Nitish is at the receiving end in Bihar at the moment: a tie-up with Congress is his best option, and it may just deliver Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) as a bonus. This would make a formidable coalition of Dalits, Muslims and non-Yadav backward castes, who constitute roughly three-quarters of the population.
Apart from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Rahul Gandhi who have both termed Mr Kumar “secular”, other Congress leaders have also been praising the Bihar chief minister; his demands, like special status for his state, are also being met, much to the discomfort of the old ally Laloo Prasad Yadav. But the Congress-Nitish Kumar alliance still has a few hurdles to cross.
- - This story was first published in www.thepoliticalindian.com on October 21, 2013
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