Is
it the end for Lalu?
It was known. He will have to go
to jail. But still, friend and foes, alike, kept stuck to their TV sets.
Waiting for the verdict to come out. Some were asking the god for a 7-years
jail term for the majestic leader of Bihar, the worst he could have got, and
others were just hoping for a small jail term. Came the verdict out: five years
in jail and Rs 25 lakhs as fine.
“It’s on expected lines, whoever
works for the poor, gets punished. It’s a conspiracy. He was our leader and will
remain to be,” roared Ram Kripal Yadav, a former RJD MP and close confidante of
Lalu.
The verdict not only pushes the
former CM of Bihar behind the bars, but also makes him to lose his
Parliamentary seat. Adding to the woes of Lalu is the new norm set by the SC,
which debars him from contesting elections for the next 11-years. The jail term
and an added six years.
The Unperturbed Lalu |
Now the focus is not Lalu going
to jail, but who will succeed him? Who will charm the state and the electorate
Lalu held? Will it slip from the RJD in the absence of Lalu Prasad? All depends
on the future moves of the Rashtriya Janata Dal.
The race to succession
There are quite a few names doing
the rounds. Leading the pack is Raghuvansh Prasad Singh, Abdul Bari Siddiqui,
Rabri Devi, Lalu’s son Tejasvi and daughter Misa Bharti.
If we go by the history of the
party and what Lalu has done, it would be someone from the family. Rabri,
Tejasvi or Misa. But what some say in the RJD is this time Lalu will not repeat
what he did when he was forced to resign as CM Bihar. In quite an arbitrary
manner, Rabri was installed as the CM of Bihar after Lalu was packed off to
jail.
Abdul Bari Siddiqui with Lalu |
Lalu has at least two good
choices out of his family to succeed him: Raghuvansh Prasad Singh and Abdul
Bari Siddiqui. Both Raghuvansh and Abdul Bari has been with Lalu through the
tough times, both served the party when future was looking down.
There are some other names in the
party like Ram Kripal Yadav, but they don’t command things like the two above
do.
Raghuvansh carries with him a tag
of being someone very popular, with a hold over his electorate and one who
never had a brush with corruption. Apart from these Raghuvansh Singh is one of
the most popular Rajput leader of Bihar, something the party can cash on. It
can hope to garner some of the Rajput votes apart from the party’s natural
voters.
The second choice, Abdul Bari
Siddiqui, is a known Muslim face of Bihar. A very old Samajwadi, known as an
honest and genuine man. His elevation can further consolidate the party’s
Muslim vote bank.
Going with these choices would
not only consolidate votes of the constituencies mentioned but will also help
RJD to shed its Lalu & Sons tag.
Raghuvansh Prasad Singh |
If someone from the family is
given reign of the party it will need a very tactical handling, no one in
Lalu’s family is Jagan. They need to be. They need to learn from Jaganmohan
Reddy, how he catapulted into a mass leader after the demise of his father.
The elevation of a family member
will invoke fear in the RJD leaders and cadres that this party will always be
led by the Lalu clan and no one else can go on top. Tejasvi has a lot of time
by his side, he can wait. Senior party leaders will not accept him easily, so
will be the case if Misa is given the control.
The only choice from the family
which can be of some discourse would be former CM and Lalu’s wife Rabri Devi.
But that won’t be any easy; RJD will not gain much from that.
Devil’s Advocate
For RJD & the Lalu
family: Turning problems into opportunity
It’s a very sad for any son to
see his father going to jail. It was even sadder for Jagan when he lost his
father. But he turned his problem into opportunity. Same needs to be emulated
in Bihar. Someone from the family needs to carry the message of the father, to
the people of Bihar. It’s fair in politics.
The moment is opportune; there is
a political turmoil in Bihar. Electors are still to make up their minds. The
side effects of the break-up between Nitish and the BJP are yet to subside. In
the last few months Nitish Kumar has also faced resistance and protests. He is
also grappling to get things back to what they were.
Misa and Tejasvi |
There are words from Bihar that
the OBC constituent is giving a serious think to go with the Modi bandwagon. A
subtle message is being passed that an OBC leader is very close to the throne
of Delhi and needs just a small push; this may work.
Of the OBC lot the most
vulnerable are the Yadavs, they have been out of power for long now. There
leader is behind the bars and if they don’t see things work for the RJD, they
might prove to be lucky for the saffron brigade in the state.
If this works, it will hit the
RJD badly. The target of the BJP are not the JD (U) voters but the voters of
the RJD.
In such circumstances it becomes
very important for the RJD and Lalu family to keep the flock together. One or
two members of the family, preferably Misa and Tejasvi, should start something
like a door to door visit. Invoking sentiments and consolidating their
constituency. They are fresh faces, kids of the man who ruled Bihar for so
long, the emotions will work. Bihar votes more on emotion (read caste) than
anything else. If the family just succeeds in keeping the RJD vote share of the
last elections intact, they will come out with flying colours. Once again, they
need to project someone from out of the family as Lalu’s substitute while he is
in jail. In such situation Abdul Bari Siddiqui seems to be the best bet. The MY
combination cobbled by Lalu can be re-worked on and can further be cemented
with the strong presence of the Modi factor in Bihar.
The calculations
Remember the elections of 2010.
It was a wave of Nitish Kumar alliance. JD (U) won 115 seats of the 141 it
contested, while partner BJP won on 91 out of the 102 seats contested. Here it
is worth mentioning the vote shares. The JD (U) got 22.61 percent of votes,
while the BJP had garnered 16.46 percent votes.
In contrast, RJD had a vote share
of 18.84 percent, but could manage only 22 seats, its partner LJP got 6.75
percent of the votes and won only 3 seats. The Congress had 4-seats with a good
8.38 percent vote share.
The JD (U) and the BJP no more in
a marriage, it’s over. This has changed the scenario a lot. That’s where it’s a
more worrisome situation for Nitish Kumar.
Bihar CM Nitish Kumar |
If the JD (U) – BJP alliance was
able to get their votes transferred even a small 5 percent in total in the last
election to each other, the separation is going to cost them a lot. Lalu’s
party is still with LJP and survey’s claim that Lalu has gained ground. Though
it’s not sure which side will the Congress go! The grand old party hardly matters
in Bihar, though has a good vote share which can work for the alliance partner,
if votes are transferred.
2010 Election Data: Vote
share
The combined vote share of the
RJD, the LJP and the Congress was 34 per cent. Add the Left parties, and the
vote share increases marginally to 36.40 per cent — still some distance behind
the 39 per cent jointly polled by the JD (U) and the BJP. The JD (U) and the
BJP outperformed their principal opponents, the RJD and the LJP in every region
of the State. The former had a lead of over 10 percentage points in all but one
region, Mithila, where the RJD-LJP polled 27.5 per cent to the JD (U)-BJP's 36
per cent. The region-wise comparative shares of the rivals: Ang: JD(U)-BJP 37.7
per cent and RJD-LJP 26.50 per cent; Koshi: JD(U)-BJP 39.8 per and RJD-LJP 22
per cent; Mithila: JD(U)-BJP 36 per cent and RJD-LJP 27.5 per cent; Tirhut:
JD(U)-BJP 38.5 per cent and RJD-LJP 24 per cent; Bhojpur: JD(U)-BJP 37.5 per
cent and RJD-LJP 25.9 per cent; Magadh: JD(U)-BJP 43.9 per cent and RJD-LJP
28.1 per cent.
Take your call, who benefits, how will it work? J J J
Next: Nitish Kumar, the times to
come.